17385 Ashbury Way · Clipper Mills, CA 95922

$199,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Other public records · 245 Days on market

Built 2006 15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the peace and privacy this off-grid property has to offer. The log kit home project is ready for your vision. Take a short drive from your doorstep down a private, narrow access road for a refreshing dip or some early morning fishing in the beautiful Bullards Bar Reservoir. The property is clean, usable, and offers 15 acres bordering government land adjacent to the lake. Endless recreational opportunities await, with just over an hour to downtown Nevada City and only 20 minutes to the Nugget Gas Station. The existing unfinished structure features a master loft, cozy wood stove, and full bathroom on main level. Lower level features two additional rooms, half bath and living room. Bring

Key facts

• Off grid cabin
• Log kit home
• 15 acres

Tags

• OFF GRID CABIN
• LOG KIT HOME
• PRIVATE ACCESS ROAD
• BULLARDS BAR RESERVOIR
• 15 ACRES
• BORDERING GOVERNMENT LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Off-grid utilities; Septic system; Water source and electricity noted as 'see remarks' or other/varied; Irrigation source identified as other/see remarks
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 2006; Three stories; Entry level configuration includes full bath(s) and kitchen; Lower level includes bedroom(s), partial bath(s) and family room; Upper level includes a loft
• Construction: Composition roof; Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Private lot with lake access; Allows horses; Shed(s) on the property; Unpaved driveway/sidewalks; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with alternate counter type; Dining space in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: One bedroom listed; space for up to three possible bedrooms; Lower level includes bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Other flooring type
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One partial bathroom; Shower stall(s); Double sinks
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; One wood-burning fireplace; Three-story layout; Loft
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups indicated

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#976 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment B, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $660 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,112 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,278
• Equity at exit: $61,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,815
• Equity at exit: $76,163

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95922

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,519/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $175,201

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-78	+0% $-135	+5% $-191	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-195	+0% $-135	+5% $-75	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-84	base $-135	+0.5pp $-186	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 223 DOM
17. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,519
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,228
• After-tax cash flow: $-389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Clipper Mills

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #976
• US rank: #24598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment B Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 495

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Current HPI: 134.9661
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,519 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.