364 S Paseo Lobo Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$109,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 160 Days on market

Built 1964 $378/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location, set back with park in front to the east and mountain views! Behind is parking, so just a short walk into your kitchen with your groceries! The community laundry is just out the back door, with clothes lines where your clothes dry fast and fresh! Just steps to the pool to the south or the Green Valley Mall to the north, where you can enjoy the Wednesday markets! This home is sparkling clean and ready for your personal touches! New laminate floors plus tile in all the right places! New bed conveys and a few pieces of furniture and personal property. Come see this gem and make it yours! No GVR, however available!

Key facts

• $378 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 871 sq ft (borders common area); Road maintained by HOA
• HOA & community: Part of Villas East association; HOA covers air conditioning/heating, blanket insurance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, pest control, roof repair and replacement, sewer, street maintenance and water; Community amenities include laundry, pool, and park; HOA fee paid monthly

Exterior

• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Slump block and stucco construction; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Patio; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pre-wired for satellite dish; Wide doorways; Smoke detector(s); Wrought iron security door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-611/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.00%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-16,984
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,055
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $101,628

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-13	+0% $-51	+5% $-89	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-105	+0% $-51	+5% $3	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-23	base $-51	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.05mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.08mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	19d	1	0.12mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.13mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.13mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	4d	1	0.13mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.14mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.18mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.19mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	4d	1	0.24mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.33mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $109,000
16. 2026-01-12
    listed $112,000 Active
17. 2025-12-09
    historical
18. 2025-07-31
    listed $117,000 Active
19. 2025-06-13
    historical
20. 2025-04-29
    price $117,000
21. 2025-01-25
    price $124,900
22. 2024-12-12
    listed $127,000 Active
23. 2024-06-21
    soldstatus $117,000 Closed
24. 2024-06-10
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2024-06-08
    listed $119,800 Active
26. 2019-05-31
    status Pending
27. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $67,000 Closed
28. 2019-05-11
    historical Active Contingent
29. 2019-04-30
    status Active
30. 2019-04-22
    historical Active Contingent
31. 2019-04-05
    listed $69,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$2,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$530
• After-tax cash flow: $-81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-12 Listed $112,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-31 Listed $117,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $117,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $124,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-12 Listed $127,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $117,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-08 Listed $119,800 MLSSAZ
• 2019-05-31 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-05-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-04-30 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2019-04-22 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-04-05 Listed $69,000 MLSSAZ