7468 Shadow Lake Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$240,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Townhouse public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2018 1,960 sqft lot $160/sqft · 24% below area Est $317k · 24% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7468 Shadow Lake Drive in beautiful Panama City Beach! This charming 2-story coastal townhome offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,496 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this attached single-unit home is ideal for full-time living, a second home, or investment opportunity. Inside, you'll find an open-concept main living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space, seamlessly flowing into the dining and living areas. Upstairs, all three bedrooms provide privacy and functionality, along with a laundry room upstairs, for added convenience. Located just minutes from Pier Park's shopping, dining, and entertainment, and only a short drive to the world-famous white sand beaches, this home offers the ultimate Panama City Beach lifestyle. Don't miss your opportunity to own this adorable coastal retreat in a prime location! All measurements, dimensions, and information are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify if important.

Key facts

• Coastal townhome
• Ample cabinet space
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COASTAL TOWNHOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LAUNDRY ROOM UPSTAIRS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,320
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -24.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1944 Pointe Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	8mo	$269,000	$180	89
7583 Shadow Lake Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	11mo	$250,000	$167	82
7670 Solana Ln #49	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	11mo	$315,000	$186	50
7653 Solana Ln #8	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	12mo	$329,900	$195	32
1844 Annabellas Dr	0.74mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-6%)	21mo	$225,000	$160	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,123
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-46,742
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,128/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $197	+0% $129	+5% $62	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $42	+0% $129	+5% $217	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $190	base $129	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.23mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.26mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	13d	6	0.29mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	21d	1	0.46mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	21d	1	0.52mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	0.56mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	21d	1	0.74mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	21d	1	0.79mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.84mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	21d	1	0.84mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	21d	1	0.91mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	13d	12	0.95mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	21d	1	0.96mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	13d	1	0.97mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	13d	18	1.08mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	13d	2	1.10mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	1.19mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.23mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.32mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.37mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	1.38mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-04-06
    price $245,000 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Welcome to 7468 Shadow Lake Drive in beautiful Panama City Beach! This charming 2-story coastal townhome offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,496 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this attached single-unit home is ideal for full-time living, a second home, or investment opportunity. Inside, you'll find an open-concept main living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space, seamlessly flowing into the dining and living areas. Upstairs, all three bedrooms provide privacy and functionality, along with a laundry room upstairs, for added convenience. Located just minutes from Pier Park's shopping, dining, and entertainment, and only a short drive to the world-famous white sand beaches, this home offers the ultimate Panama City Beach lifestyle. Don't miss your opportunity to own this adorable coastal retreat in a prime location! All measurements, dimensions, and information are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify if important.

13. 2026-03-12
    price $250,000 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Welcome to 7468 Shadow Lake Drive in beautiful Panama City Beach! This charming 2-story coastal townhome offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,496 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this attached single-unit home is ideal for full-time living, a second home, or investment opportunity. Inside, you'll find an open-concept main living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space, seamlessly flowing into the dining and living areas. Upstairs, all three bedrooms provide privacy and functionality, along with a laundry room upstairs, for added convenience. Located just minutes from Pier Park's shopping, dining, and entertainment, and only a short drive to the world-famous white sand beaches, this home offers the ultimate Panama City Beach lifestyle. Don't miss your opportunity to own this adorable coastal retreat in a prime location! All measurements, dimensions, and information are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify if important.

14. 2026-02-27
    listed $260,000 Active 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Welcome to 7468 Shadow Lake Drive in beautiful Panama City Beach! This charming 2-story coastal townhome offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,496 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this attached single-unit home is ideal for full-time living, a second home, or investment opportunity. Inside, you'll find an open-concept main living area perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet space, seamlessly flowing into the dining and living areas. Upstairs, all three bedrooms provide privacy and functionality, along with a laundry room upstairs, for added convenience. Located just minutes from Pier Park's shopping, dining, and entertainment, and only a short drive to the world-famous white sand beaches, this home offers the ultimate Panama City Beach lifestyle. Don't miss your opportunity to own this adorable coastal retreat in a prime location! All measurements, dimensions, and information are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify if important.

15. 2026-02-13
    price $260,000
16. 2026-02-13
    price $260,000
17. 2025-10-30
    price $275,000
18. 2025-10-30
    price $275,000
19. 2025-08-12
    price $295,000
20. 2025-08-12
    price $295,000
21. 2025-05-23
    listed $300,000 Active
22. 2025-05-19
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,128
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$586
• After-tax cash flow: $2,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $245,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $250,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $260,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $260,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Listed $300,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+50.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,128 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.