Harvest Ridge 1159 Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$191,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,181 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

Key facts

• Playscapes
• Fishing ponds
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCHES
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• FISHING PONDS
• PLAYSCAPES
• EVENT LAWNS
• FOOD TRUCKS

🏗️ New construction. The $191,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $306,003.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-496 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,003
• List price: $191,990
• Delta: -34.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Summer Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+1%)	2mo	$214,840	$180	75
143 Daylily Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+1%)	2mo	$209,990	$176	74
104 Summer Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+4%)	1mo	$241,770	$197	71
100 Daylily Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+4%)	2mo	$249,180	$203	67
117 Summer Dr	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,088 (-8%)	2mo	$206,110	$189	61
125 Blue Ridge Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+7%)	3mo	$239,000	$189	55
149 Daylily Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+12%)	1mo	$223,750	$169	55
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-9%)	2mo	$255,900	$238	52
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-9%)	2mo	$252,900	$235	50
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-9%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	48
503 Blanco Woods Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	3mo	$269,900	$208	47
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+10%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $135,347
• Equity at exit: $275,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $423,983
• Equity at exit: $594,497

Cash invested: $85,681 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$383 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $234,234

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,501
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.28mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.35mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.44mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.70mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.71mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.76mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.80mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,990 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $191,990 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    listed $199,990 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$11,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from exterior painting and landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior cleaning and staging — Prepares home for showings and sale

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning and staging — Prepares home for showings and sale ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $199,990 Zillow