11 A Pheasant St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$147,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Good condition $134/sqft · 43% above area Est $103k · 43% over $485/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bedroom home located in the lovely community of Cedar Glen West! This home boasts new kitchen cabinets, new countertops, new appliances, new carpet. Don't miss your chance to move into this ''Quail'' home in an affordable community! This home has CENTRAL AIR. & GAS hw baseboard heat. Monthly Maintenance fee covers lawn care, snow plowing, water, trash pickup, septic repairs, all maintenance on the roofs, exterior of the building, boiler, hot water heaters and all taxes! There are pull-down stairs to spacious attic. Clubhouse for activities, bocce court & bus service. Approximately 1,100 sq feet. Affordable retirement living found!

Key facts

• New carpet
• New kitchen cabinets
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW CARPET
• CENTRAL AIR
• GAS HW BASEBOARD HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $147k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,770 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,924
• List price: $147,000
• Delta: 42.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13B Pheasant St	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,100 (0%)	0mo	$95,500	$87	99
2C Dove St	0.14mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	6mo	$78,000	$80	68
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.21mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	6mo	$57,500	$59	66
6 Dove St Unit D	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	3mo	$80,000	$82	65
22 C Robin St	0.35mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	3mo	$158,000	$163	62
12 Heron St Unit D	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	980 (-11%)	1mo	$120,000	$122	61
16 B Dove St	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	1mo	$73,000	$75	61
6 C Swallow St	0.45mi	2/1.0	970 (-12%)	2mo	$110,000	$113	57
18 Dove St Unit A	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	6mo	$69,900	$72	57
17 Heron St Unit D	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	4mo	$55,000	$57	56
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	3mo	$53,000	$55	53
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	970 (-12%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,387
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,489
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$184 /mo · $2,205/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$485
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,900

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $288	+0% $237	+5% $186	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $150	+0% $237	+5% $324	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $275	base $237	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $485 · $5,820/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgaslandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $147,000 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom home located in the lovely community of Cedar Glen West! This home boasts new kitchen cabinets, new countertops, new appliances, new carpet. Don't miss your chance to move into this ''Quail'' home in an affordable community! This home has CENTRAL AIR. & GAS hw baseboard heat. Monthly Maintenance fee covers lawn care, snow plowing, water, trash pickup, septic repairs, all maintenance on the roofs, exterior of the building, boiler, hot water heaters and all taxes! There are pull-down stairs to spacious attic. Clubhouse for activities, bocce court & bus service. Approximately 1,100 sq feet. Affordable retirement living found!

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $158,000 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom home located in the lovely community of Cedar Glen West! This home boasts new kitchen cabinets, new countertops, new appliances, new carpet. Don't miss your chance to move into this ''Quail'' home in an affordable community! This home has CENTRAL AIR. & GAS hw baseboard heat. Monthly Maintenance fee covers lawn care, snow plowing, water, trash pickup, septic repairs, all maintenance on the roofs, exterior of the building, boiler, hot water heaters and all taxes! There are pull-down stairs to spacious attic. Clubhouse for activities, bocce court & bus service. Approximately 1,100 sq feet. Affordable retirement living found!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$2,205
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,820
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent renovations and improvements, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both painting exterior and interior — fresh paint can make the home look more appealing and increase its value
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase the home's value and attract more renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both painting exterior and interior — fresh paint can make the home look more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — newer appliances can increase the home's value and attract more renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $147,000 MOMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $158,000 MOMLS