1029 E 25th St · Erie, PA 16503

$29,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1889 4,726 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

2 Story house with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This property is a total renovation opportunity. The bones on this house are sturdy but needs interior and exterior renovations. All offers must be accompanied by ELB Developer Proposal. See attachment.

Key facts

• Exterior renovations
• Interior renovations
• 4,726 sq ft lot

Tags

• TOTAL RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• INTERIOR RENOVATIONS
• EXTERIOR RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.5% vs local median 5.3% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $30k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.45%
• DSCR: 4.85
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
834 E 28th St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	0mo	$60,000	$45	77
1060 E 24th St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	3mo	$35,000	$29	75
1033 E 29 St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-5%)	1mo	$180,000	$146	69
953 E 33rd St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,333 (+3%)	3mo	$99,500	$75	69
1246 E 28th St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,176 (-9%)	0mo	$139,900	$119	68
749 E 32nd St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (-2%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	64
2925 Pennsylvania Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,157 (-11%)	2mo	$133,000	$115	61
1021 E 31st St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$130,900	$111	60
2607 Jackson Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,478 (+14%)	3mo	$59,000	$40	56
1128 E 35th St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (-10%)	0mo	$164,900	$142	47
539 E 23rd St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,139 (-12%)	1mo	$28,000	$25	44
1417 E 28th St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-14%)	2mo	$150,000	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $46,585
• Equity at exit: $18,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.5%
• Equity multiple: 13.79×
• Total profit: $107,113
• Equity at exit: $32,736

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $613	+0% $603	+5% $593	+10% $582
Rent	-10% $522	-5% $563	+0% $603	+5% $644	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $618	-0.5pp $611	base $603	+0.5pp $595	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	0.58mi
519 E 6th St Unit 3 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	45d	1	1.44mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	1.48mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-08-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-19
   listed $29,900 Active
3. 1976-04-30
   soldstatus $13,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $7,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $5,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+115.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-11 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-06-19 Listed $29,900 GEBOR
• 1976-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,534 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.