1568 Coldwater Way · Crandall, TX 75114

$320,603

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,720 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Skip your commute and work from home in flex room turned home office. White cabinets with speckled white granite countertops, light tan EVP flooring with dark beige textured carpet.

Key facts

• Flex room
• Pool
• Home office

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• FLEX ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITY CENTER
• POOL
• KID'S SPLASH PAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Annual association fee; Association fee covers full use of facilities; HOA management by Neighborhood Management, Inc.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with single 2-car door; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual gas meter; Low-flow fixtures for water conservation; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Development restrictions in place; Subdivision: River Ridge
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Community pool; Lake; Park; Playground

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary on main level; three bedrooms on second level); Bonus room on main level; Game room on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Heat pump; Zoned HVAC
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Smart home system; 7 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two-story layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 802 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,793 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,384
• Equity at exit: $47,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-18,342
• Equity at exit: $27,720

Cash invested: $89,769 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 802
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,681
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,546

Max offer price $320,603

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $289	+0% $199	+5% $108	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $88	+0% $199	+5% $309	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $360	-0.5pp $280	base $199	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,151
• Closing costs: $9,618
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 Muscovy St Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,200	$0.96	26d	1	1.13mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	45d	1	1.41mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,603 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,603 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,603 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,603 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,603 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 682-char remark

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Skip your commute and work from home in flex room turned home office. White cabinets with speckled white granite countertops, light tan EVP flooring with dark beige textured carpet.

7. 2026-06-13
   listed $320,603 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (181 chars)

   Skip your commute and work from home in flex room turned home office. White cabinets with speckled white granite countertops, light tan EVP flooring with dark beige textured carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,867 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,009/yr (+$334/mo · 215.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$1,603
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,327
• Taxable loss: −$3,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $3,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crandall, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Listed $320,603 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $320,603 Zillow

Property tax history

+107.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,858 · +250.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.