11323 N Anway Rd · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1996 1.03 ac lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, roof, and exterior paint.

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.8% in Avra Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roadrunner Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 374 students, 73% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $208k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,237
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -3.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16705 W Calle Cristobal	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+8%)	6mo	$271,000	$151	78
16640 W Branch Water Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	1mo	$248,300	$158	70
11320 N Paseo Alejandro	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (+7%)	12mo	$313,500	$176	68
16842 W Calle Carmela	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	4mo	$265,500	$173	62
16921 W Placita Dato	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	1mo	$285,000	$196	61
16741 W Whitewing Way	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,624 (-2%)	2mo	$123,000	$76	59
11241 N Paseo Alejandro	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,904 (+14%)	11mo	$325,000	$171	58
16860 W Calle Cristobal	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	12mo	$235,000	$161	54
16900 W Jaguar Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+14%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	52
16700 W Peccary Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	11mo	$285,000	$182	50
16960 W Calle Carmela	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-12%)	9mo	$275,000	$189	41
11241 N Derringer Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-14%)	15mo	$235,000	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,584
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $20,059
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $446	+0% $374	+5% $302	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $279	+0% $374	+5% $468	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $439	base $374	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-01-07
    listed $255,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, roof, and exterior paint.

18. 2023-08-08
    soldstatus $208,000 Closed 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, Roof, Exterior Paint and some windows. Needs a little updating and work to make the home how you want it. Priced to sell, don't miss out! Sold As-Is

19. 2023-08-08
    soldstatus $208,000

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, Roof, Exterior Paint and some windows. Needs a little updating and work to make the home how you want it. Priced to sell, don't miss out! Sold As-Is

20. 2023-06-09
    status Pending 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, Roof, Exterior Paint and some windows. Needs a little updating and work to make the home how you want it. Priced to sell, don't miss out! Sold As-Is

21. 2023-06-05
    historical Active Contingent 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, Roof, Exterior Paint and some windows. Needs a little updating and work to make the home how you want it. Priced to sell, don't miss out! Sold As-Is

22. 2023-05-17
    listed $205,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom 2 full bathroom home located on a fully fenced acre right off the pavement. Split bedroom floor plan with a nice open living room and wood burning fireplace. Beautifully updated kitchen, newer HVAC system, Roof, Exterior Paint and some windows. Needs a little updating and work to make the home how you want it. Priced to sell, don't miss out! Sold As-Is

23. 2005-04-11
    soldstatus $98,000
24. 2005-04-07
    soldstatus $98,000
25. 2004-09-20
    listed $98,000
26. 2004-05-15
    historical
27. 2003-11-15
    listed $98,750
28. 1996-02-26
    soldstatus $17,900
29. 1995-03-24
    soldstatus $12,500
30. 1995-03-24
    soldstatus $62,500
31. 1994-06-13
    listed $12,500
32. 1994-03-23
    listed $17,900
33. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 91.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64
• After-tax cash flow: $4,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-81.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $208,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Sold (MLS) $208,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-09 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-05 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-17 Listed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-07 Sold (MLS) $98,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-09-20 Listed $98,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-05-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2003-11-15 Listed $98,750 MLSSAZ
• 1996-02-26 Sold (MLS) $17,900 MLSSAZ
• 1995-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1995-03-24 Sold (MLS) $12,500 MLSSAZ
• 1994-06-13 Listed $12,500 MLSSAZ
• 1994-03-23 Listed $17,900 MLSSAZ
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.