2430 E Hazeltine Way · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$694,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,462 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2015 6,325 sqft lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $722k · at est. $104/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION!! 5 bds,3 bth, 3 car garage in Adora Trails. Wonderful flex spaces including a Mother in Law suite/office with full bath on main floor, game room, upstairs bonus room, formal dining, and family room. Upgraded amenities include: Granite counters, iron stair-railing, balcony off primary with mountain views, security wiring, auto locks, in wall pest tube system, and much more! Low maintenance backyard with turf and a concrete pad for future pergola/bbq/spa or whatever you dream up. Community has trails, grass and tot lots, catch release fish lake, community center with gym and pool all INCLUDED in HOA dues! Award winning, A+ rated, CTA Patterson, Chandler school, right in the community.

Key facts

• Mother in law suite
• Formal dining
• Family room

Tags

• MOTHER IN LAW SUITE
• GAME ROOM
• UPSTAIRS BONUS ROOM
• FORMAL DINING
• FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $465k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $374k (46.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charlotte Patterson Elementary (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B+, #92 of 1,109 statewide, top 9%, 851 students, 8% FRL); Willie & Coy Payne Jr. High (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #26 of 218 statewide, top 12%, 1,143 students, 11% FRL); Arizona College Prep High School (math 91% / reading 83%, grade A, #2 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$101k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($632k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,929 (46.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $721,756
• List price: $694,900
• Delta: -3.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2454 E Stacey Rd	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,462 (0%)	1mo	$690,000	$199	86
2496 E Lindrick Dr	0.14mi	5/3.5	3,635 (+5%)	11mo	$845,000	$232	74
2199 E Gillcrest Rd	0.45mi	5/3.5	3,512 (+1%)	9mo	$606,000	$173	67
2249 E Galileo Dr	0.55mi	5/3.5	3,623 (+5%)	7mo	$835,000	$230	59
7871 S Stuart Ave	0.37mi	5/3.5	3,957 (+14%)	1mo	$969,900	$245	57
2676 E LA Costa Dr	0.70mi	5/3.5	3,655 (+6%)	1mo	$732,000	$200	55
7622 S Quinn Ave	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,342 (-4%)	10mo	$929,900	$278	55
2425 E Flintlock Dr	0.21mi	5/2.5	2,985 (-14%)	10mo	$684,900	$229	53
2698 E LA Costa Dr	0.71mi	5/3.5	3,689 (+7%)	3mo	$765,000	$207	52
7637 S Barlow Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,986 (-14%)	1mo	$950,000	$318	47
2336 E Susan Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,059 (-12%)	10mo	$900,000	$294	46
7616 S Sorrell Ln	0.59mi	5/3.5	3,893 (+12%)	8mo	$760,000	$195	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $224,366
• Equity at exit: $545,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $723,833
• Equity at exit: $1,099,063

Cash invested: $194,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,644
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,601/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $-1,300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,385

Max offer price $465,187

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-907	-5% $-1,104	+0% $-1,300	+5% $-1,497	+10% $-1,694
Rent	-10% $-1,596	-5% $-1,448	+0% $-1,300	+5% $-1,153	+10% $-1,005
Rate	-1.0pp $-950	-0.5pp $-1,124	base $-1,300	+0.5pp $-1,480	+1.0pp $-1,664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,725
• Closing costs: $20,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2220 E Flintlock Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2643	$2,950	$1.12	25d	1	0.41mi
7657 S Debra Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.5	3512	$3,700	$1.05	0d	1	0.47mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2873	$2,995	$1.04	25d	1	0.63mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2873	$2,995	$1.04	23d	1	0.63mi
1949 E Bellflower Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	4.5	4345	$4,400	$1.01	46d	1	0.81mi
3010 E Augusta Ave Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.5	2938	$3,795	$1.29	45d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $694,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $694,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $694,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $694,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $694,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $694,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $694,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $694,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $694,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $694,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $694,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $694,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $694,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $694,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $694,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $694,900 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION!! 5 bds,3 bth, 3 car garage in Adora Trails. Wonderful flex spaces including a Mother in Law suite/office with full bath on main floor, game room, upstairs bonus room, formal dining, and family room. Upgraded amenities include: Granite counters, iron stair-railing, balcony off primary with mountain views, security wiring, auto locks, in wall pest tube system, and much more! Low maintenance backyard with turf and a concrete pad for future pergola/bbq/spa or whatever you dream up. Community has trails, grass and tot lots, catch release fish lake, community center with gym and pool all INCLUDED in HOA dues! Award winning, A+ rated, CTA Patterson, Chandler school, right in the community.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $718,900 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION!! 5 bds,3 bth, 3 car garage in Adora Trails. Wonderful flex spaces including a Mother in Law suite/office with full bath on main floor, game room, upstairs bonus room, formal dining, and family room. Upgraded amenities include: Granite counters, iron stair-railing, balcony off primary with mountain views, security wiring, auto locks, in wall pest tube system, and much more! Low maintenance backyard with turf and a concrete pad for future pergola/bbq/spa or whatever you dream up. Community has trails, grass and tot lots, catch release fish lake, community center with gym and pool all INCLUDED in HOA dues! Award winning, A+ rated, CTA Patterson, Chandler school, right in the community.

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $719,900 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION!! 5 bds,3 bth, 3 car garage in Adora Trails. Wonderful flex spaces including a Mother in Law suite/office with full bath on main floor, game room, upstairs bonus room, formal dining, and family room. Upgraded amenities include: Granite counters, iron stair-railing, balcony off primary with mountain views, security wiring, auto locks, in wall pest tube system, and much more! Low maintenance backyard with turf and a concrete pad for future pergola/bbq/spa or whatever you dream up. Community has trails, grass and tot lots, catch release fish lake, community center with gym and pool all INCLUDED in HOA dues! Award winning, A+ rated, CTA Patterson, Chandler school, right in the community.

19. 2025-12-19
    historical
20. 2025-11-06
    listed $719,900 Active
21. 2025-11-06
    historical $3,600
22. 2025-09-27
    price $3,600
23. 2025-09-11
    price $3,800
24. 2025-08-19
    listed $3,900
25. 2025-08-19
    historical $3,900
26. 2025-08-18
    listed $3,900
27. 2022-07-22
    price $715,000
28. 2022-07-22
    historical
29. 2022-07-18
    price $698,500
30. 2022-07-13
    price $699,000
31. 2022-06-30
    listed $720,000 Active
32. 2017-02-25
    historical
33. 2017-01-27
    price $379,900
34. 2017-01-20
    listed $384,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,586 · $382/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,986/yr (+$165/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,601
• − Insurance: −$3,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,590
• − Management: −$3,590
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$20,215
• Taxable loss: −$28,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,905
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+80.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $694,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $718,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $719,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $719,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Rental Removed $3,600 ARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $3,600 ARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $3,800 ARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed for Rent $3,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Rental Removed $3,900 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-18 Listed for Rent $3,900 APPFOLIO
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $715,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $698,500 ARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $720,000 ARMLS
• 2017-02-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-01-27 Price Changed $379,900 ARMLS
• 2017-01-20 Listed $384,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+30.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,601 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.