2409 Ranger Pass · Seguin, TX 78155

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2019 5,662 sqft lot $203/sqft · 22% below area Est $262k · 22% under $27/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2409 RANGER PASS IS THE PERFECT PLACE FOR YOUR FAMILY TO CALL HOME.

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $82.50 quarterly; Association transfer fee $940

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water and sewer; City garbage service; Electric water heater
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Built approximately 7 years ago; Subdivision: HIDDENBROOKE
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by CENTURY
• Exterior features: Brick, stone/rock, and siding exterior; Park/playground nearby; Other community amenities (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen 14 x 11; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave oven; Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level) with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 10 x 10; Master bedroom dimensions: 12 x 12
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (9 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer connection; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave oven; Stove/Range; Disposal; Dishwasher; Ice maker connection; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater; Garage door opener; City garbage service; Living/dining room combination; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcqueeney El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 314 students, 84% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,890 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,382
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -21.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2429 Ranger Pass	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,010 (0%)	13mo	$212,000	$210	87
2204 Darst	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,010 (0%)	3mo	$205,000	$203	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-44,494
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-57,471
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,406/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $177,993

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-95	+0% $-153	+5% $-211	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-219	+0% $-153	+5% $-87	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-101	base $-153	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2420 Ranger Pass Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,500	$1.11	25d	1	0.04mi
2432 Ayers Dr Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,600	$1.09	45d	1	0.10mi
2216 Mayfield Ln Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,550	$1.08	25d	1	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $205,000 New 67-char remark
15. 2026-02-06
    historical
16. 2026-02-06
    historical
17. 2026-01-20
    price $224,900
18. 2026-01-19
    price $224,900
19. 2025-10-28
    listed $230,900 New
20. 2025-10-28
    listed $230,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,406 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,406
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $-543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $224,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $224,900 LERA
• 2025-10-28 Listed $230,900 LERA
• 2025-10-28 Listed $230,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+40.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,406 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.