Kepler Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$374,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer with immediate access to the two-car garage and two front bedrooms that share a full bath. Continuing down the hallway, you'll find two additional bedrooms-each with a walk-in closet-and another shared bath. As you reach the heart of the home, the space opens into the kitchen, great room, and dining area. A conveniently located laundry room sits just before the main living space. Off the dining area, a back patio offers outdoor living space. The primary bedroom is tucked off the great room and features a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed primary bath.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BACK PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $374,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Kepler plan; New construction inventory (Plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2218; Plan-built home
• Exterior features: Located at 13112 Bending Creek Trl, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating and heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan-built home (Kepler plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $374,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,842.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($563/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $329,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,842
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10465 Curving Creek Loop	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (+2%)	2mo	$379,990	$168	81
10476 Curving Creek Loop	0.22mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (+2%)	1mo	$356,990	$158	81
13124 Bending Crekk Trl	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (+5%)	1mo	$395,000	$169	80
13107 Bending Creek Trl	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,336 (+5%)	1mo	$390,000	$167	80
11104 Curving Creek Loop	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,020 (-9%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	78
13131 Bending Creek Trl	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,020 (-9%)	0mo	$380,990	$189	77
13128 Bending Creek Trl	0.04mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,020 (-9%)	2mo	$376,500	$186	77
13257 Bending Creek Trl	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,164 (-2%)	1mo	$374,990	$173	75
10829 Paddling Trace Run	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,402 (+8%)	1mo	$359,990	$150	66
10636 Hidden Banks Gln	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+2%)	1mo	$362,000	$160	65
10644 Hidden Banks Gln	0.53mi	5/3.0	2,447 (+10%)	2mo	$366,000	$150	56
10833 Paddling Trace Run	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (-14%)	1mo	$346,990	$181	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-67,488
• Equity at exit: $55,890

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-92,527
• Equity at exit: $32,409

Cash invested: $104,956 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,623/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,279

Max offer price $374,842

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $176	+0% $47	+5% $-83	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-85	+0% $47	+5% $179	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $142	base $47	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,710
• Closing costs: $11,245
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	0.25mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	0.55mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $374,990 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,990 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,990 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,990 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,990 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,990 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,997
• − Property taxes: −$5,623
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,205
• − Management: −$3,205
• − Depreciation: −$10,904
• Taxable loss: −$5,747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B