16 Joshua Way · Ludowici, GA 31316

$189,997

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.30 ac lot $113/sqft · 18% below area Est $231k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOT 38 SITS ON ABOUT HALF AND ACRE!!! ! GO VA AND FHA ! Don't miss out on this Charming NEW 3 bedroom / 2-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.3% in Ludowici — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 532 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,297 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,365
• List price: $189,997
• Delta: -17.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3573 SE Arnall Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-5%)	5mo	$246,900	$155	61
14 Griffin Rd	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (-1%)	0mo	$265,000	$159	60
1297 Talmadge Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-9%)	3mo	$251,500	$165	52
3597 SE Arnall Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,835 (+9%)	4mo	$255,000	$139	51
1343 Talmadge Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,864 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$142	48
184 Fawn Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-9%)	15mo	$282,595	$185	47
1261 Talmadge Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,609 (-4%)	16mo	$271,000	$168	47
139 Winchester Way SE	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+3%)	24mo	$255,000	$147	46
62 Fawn Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,810 (+8%)	15mo	$297,510	$164	45
425 Winchester Way SE	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-13%)	16mo	$219,000	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $16,974
• Equity at exit: $66,434

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $67,750
• Equity at exit: $89,513

Cash invested: $53,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,450 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 64 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -17.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 532
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $189,997

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $253	+0% $187	+5% $121	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $112	+0% $187	+5% $262	+10% $337
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $235	base $187	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,499
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Jefferson Cir SE Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,625	$1.42	3d	1	0.27mi
25 Jefferson Cir SE Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,650	$1.23	3d	1	0.41mi
32 Gregory Ct Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,700	$1.33	4d	1	0.55mi
409 Carter Rd Unit A Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,400	$1.17	5d	1	0.64mi
1732 Talmadge Rd Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,750	$1.23	5d	1	0.83mi
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	139d	1	1.00mi
16 Retriever Way Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,690	$1.30	4d	1	1.07mi
373 Carter Rd Unit A Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	139d	1	1.20mi
119 Belleau Woods Cir Unit 27 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,075	$1.44	139d	1	1.41mi
23 Belleau Woods Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,975	$1.37	139d	1	1.42mi
15 Belleau Woods Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,050	$1.42	5d	1	1.42mi
64 Belleau Woods Cir #42 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,050	$1.42	5d	1	1.42mi
113 Belleau Woods Cir Unit 25 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,975	$1.37	5d	1	1.43mi
559 McCumber Dr Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,800	$0.93	139d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $189,997 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $189,997 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $189,997 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $189,997 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $189,997 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $189,997 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $189,997 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $189,997 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $189,997 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $189,997 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $189,997 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $189,997 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $189,997 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $189,997 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $189,997 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-08-16
    days on market $189,998 Active 176 DOM
17. 2026-08-15
    days on market $189,998 Active 175 DOM
18. 2026-08-14
    days on market $189,998 Active 174 DOM
19. 2026-08-13
    days on market $189,998 Active 173 DOM
20. 2026-08-12
    days on market $189,998 Active 172 DOM
21. 2026-08-11
    days on market $189,998 Active 171 DOM
22. 2026-08-10
    days on market $189,998 Active 170 DOM
23. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $189,998 Active 169 DOM
24. 2026-08-08
    days on market $199,982 Active 168 DOM
25. 2026-08-07
    days on market $199,982 Active 167 DOM
26. 2026-08-06
    days on market $199,982 Active 166 DOM
27. 2026-08-05
    days on market $199,982 Active 165 DOM
28. 2026-08-04
    days on market $199,982 Active 164 DOM
29. 2026-08-03
    days on market $199,982 Active 163 DOM
30. 2026-07-31
    days on market $199,982 Active 160 DOM
31. 2026-07-30
    days on market $199,982 Active 159 DOM
32. 2026-07-29
    days on market $199,982 Active 158 DOM
33. 2026-07-27
    days on market $199,982 Active 156 DOM
34. 2026-07-25
    days on market $199,982 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,982 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,982 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,982 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-07-21
    pricestatusdays on market $199,982 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-07-19
    status $199,983 Pending 148 DOM
40. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $199,983 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $199,985 Active 146 DOM
42. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $199,986 Active 145 DOM
43. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,988 Active 144 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $199,988 Active 143 DOM
45. 2026-07-12
    days on market $199,989 Active 142 DOM
46. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $199,989 Active 141 DOM
47. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,990 Active 140 DOM
48. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $199,990 Active 139 DOM
49. 2026-07-08
    pricedays on market $199,992 Active 138 DOM
50. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,993 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This charming home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops can enhance the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — Upgraded lighting can improve the home's ambiance and increase its value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor seating area — A cozy outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both Install a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 24,669 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $209,945 HABR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $209,948 HABR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $209,949 HABR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $209,950 HABR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $209,951 HABR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $209,953 HABR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $209,954 HABR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $209,955 HABR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $209,956 HABR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $209,957 HABR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $209,958 HABR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $209,959 HABR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $209,960 HABR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $209,961 HABR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $209,962 HABR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $209,963 HABR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,964 HABR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,965 HABR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $209,967 HABR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $209,969 HABR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $209,970 HABR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $209,971 HABR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $209,972 HABR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $209,973 HABR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $209,974 HABR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $209,975 HABR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $209,976 HABR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $209,977 HABR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $209,979 HABR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $209,980 HABR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $209,981 HABR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $209,982 HABR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $209,983 HABR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $209,984 HABR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $209,985 HABR
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $209,986 HABR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $209,987 HABR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $209,989 HABR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $209,990 HABR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $209,991 HABR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $209,992 HABR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $209,993 HABR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $209,995 HABR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $209,996 HABR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $209,997 HABR
• 2026-02-15 Listed $209,998 HABR