23930 Verngate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1978 8,881 sqft lot $135/sqft · 26% below area Est $243k · 26% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

Key facts

• Huge wooded lot
• Brand new roof
• Brand new ac unit

Tags

• HUGE WOODED LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW AC UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Birnam Wood; Annual association fee of $350; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1978
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 11 x 11); Additional first-floor bedroom/bonus space (dimensions listed for living room and breakfast nook)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combo; Pots & pan drawers; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,477
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -26.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22843 Spruce Summit Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	21mo	$236,000	$171	71
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-6%)	16mo	$224,900	$179	56
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	7mo	$205,000	$160	55
22911 Pebworth Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+10%)	14mo	$165,000	$112	52
23811 Firegate Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+2%)	22mo	$200,000	$147	46
23130 Royal Tiger Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+15%)	21mo	$249,000	$162	44
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,467 (+10%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	42
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+12%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,478
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,313
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,853/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $416	+0% $365	+5% $314	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $274	+0% $365	+5% $456	+10% $547
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $411	base $365	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $179,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Pending 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Pending 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Pending 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $179,900 Pending 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $194,900 Active 359-char remark
16. 2019-09-12
    soldstatus
17. 2019-09-11
    soldstatus Sold 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

18. 2019-08-14
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

19. 2019-08-06
    status Option Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

20. 2019-07-30
    status Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

21. 2019-07-10
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

22. 2019-07-02
    status Option Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

23. 2019-07-01
    historical 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

24. 2019-06-26
    listed $139,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET- ONE DAY ONLY-Gorgeous with open design, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, open and bright kitchen with granite counter tops, updated fixtures, laminate wood flooring, nice master, updated baths with quartz counter top and under mount sinks, nice bedrooms, upgraded lighting, huge wooded lot with no back neighbors, lowest price in the neighborhood, best deal in town, make this one a must see, this home will NOT last long. Showings one day only -Open house this Saturday August 3rd 11:30-2:30pm

25. 2010-11-08
    soldstatus
26. 2010-11-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    What an oppurtunity to own a completely remodeled home. New paint, flooring, fixtures, exterior paint, and more. HUGE backyard that backs to forest-no back neighbors. Plenty of room to stretch out and enjoy a dead end street with no traffic. Great schools. Recent roof and air condition system. This one is ready to move in and enjoy.

27. 2010-09-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    What an oppurtunity to own a completely remodeled home. New paint, flooring, fixtures, exterior paint, and more. HUGE backyard that backs to forest-no back neighbors. Plenty of room to stretch out and enjoy a dead end street with no traffic. Great schools. Recent roof and air condition system. This one is ready to move in and enjoy.

28. 2010-07-22
    listed $77,900

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    What an oppurtunity to own a completely remodeled home. New paint, flooring, fixtures, exterior paint, and more. HUGE backyard that backs to forest-no back neighbors. Plenty of room to stretch out and enjoy a dead end street with no traffic. Great schools. Recent roof and air condition system. This one is ready to move in and enjoy.

29. 2000-08-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,853 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,853 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$4,853
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $1,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $3,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+130.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2019-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-26 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2010-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Listed $77,900 HARMLS
• 2000-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,853 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.