11350 Sarah Jane Ln #164 · Prescott Valley, AZ 86327

$195,100

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $185/sqft · 39% below area Est $320k · 39% under ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Community in the highly sought after Orchard Ranch NORTH Community.Welcome to this stunning home. This home is very spacious and nearly brand-new. The yard has wonderful landscaping front and back. Kitchen has a beautiful Granite island and stainless steel appliances.Plank wood flooring throughout the home.Large oversized windows for that open feel.Large master bath with tile shower & walk in closet2nd bedroom perfect for office or guest room and bath has a nice shower.Shed with plenty of storageTurn Key Property.

Key facts

• Plank wood flooring
• Granite island
• Walk in closet

Tags

• GRANITE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLANK WOOD FLOORING
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• TILE SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 266 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $174,363 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,270
• List price: $195,100
• Delta: -39.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2214 Dove Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	4mo	$140,000	$140	71
1165 Rocking M Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-7%)	3mo	$146,500	$149	69
11250 E State Route 69 Unit 1128-2	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,174 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$128	65
11250 E State Route 69 1152	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+12%)	12mo	$130,000	$110	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,730
• Equity at exit: $29,090

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,389
• Equity at exit: $16,869

Cash invested: $54,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86327

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,926/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,707

Max offer price $195,100

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,775
• Closing costs: $5,853
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1298 Tapadero Dr Unit A Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1134	$1,750	$1.54	21d	1	0.72mi
11501 E Wingfoot Ct Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.5	1467	$2,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.94mi
1251 Barzona Ave #2 Dewey, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,745	$1.39	44d	1	1.04mi
959 N Old Chisholm Trl Apt 01 Dewey, AZ	1.0	2.0	960	$1,175	$1.22	44d	1	1.13mi
873 N Old Chisholm Trl Unit A Dewey, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,100 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,100 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,100 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,100 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,100 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,100 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,100 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,100 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,100 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,100 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,100 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,100 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-04-30
    price $195,100 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    55+ Community in the highly sought after Orchard Ranch NORTH Community.Welcome to this stunning home. This home is very spacious and nearly brand-new. The yard has wonderful landscaping front and back. Kitchen has a beautiful Granite island and stainless steel appliances.Plank wood flooring throughout the home.Large oversized windows for that open feel.Large master bath with tile shower & walk in closet2nd bedroom perfect for office or guest room and bath has a nice shower.Shed with plenty of storageTurn Key Property.

14. 2026-03-26
    listed $199,100 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    55+ Community in the highly sought after Orchard Ranch NORTH Community.Welcome to this stunning home. This home is very spacious and nearly brand-new. The yard has wonderful landscaping front and back. Kitchen has a beautiful Granite island and stainless steel appliances.Plank wood flooring throughout the home.Large oversized windows for that open feel.Large master bath with tile shower & walk in closet2nd bedroom perfect for office or guest room and bath has a nice shower.Shed with plenty of storageTurn Key Property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,929
• − Property taxes: −$2,926
• − Insurance: −$976
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,676
• Taxable loss: −$2,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$703
• After-tax cash flow: $1,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly brand-new home in a sought-after community is move-in ready with good condition and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
• NCES district ID: 0403870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6605
• State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 63,155
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 12,154
• Household income: $71,512
• Rent vs Own: 9.0% rent · 91.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 320.6301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $195,100 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $199,100 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid