101 M Anthony Loop · Graford, TX 76449

$269,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

0.34 ac lot Est $268k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located just down the road from the shoreline of Possum Kingdom Lake and only a few minutes from public ramps, this hidden gem is an ideal spot for summer lake vacations, full time living, or a great investment property! The large double lot is mostly level, fenced in the back with easy access for mowing or trailer storage, and features thoughtfully placed fruit and pecan trees, flowering bushes and other plants. There is plenty of room for outdoor fun, relaxing on the patio, or planting a garden, plus lots of storage and covered parking. Inside you will find well-loved and inviting spaces that are ideal for hosting large gatherings for family or friends. With an open concept dining room an

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approx. 0.344 acres (level, interior lot, few trees); Lot dimensions roughly 99 x 167 x 96 x 167; Other structures include shed/outbuilding for storage; Parcel number provided
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Carport spaces: 2; Driveway and off-street parking; RV access/parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Individual water meter; Septic; Asphalt road access; Overhead utilities; Outside city limits / unincorporated (no city services)
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Accessible full bath and accessible grip (accessible features present); Not attached to other properties; Waterfront: Possum Kingdom (nearby)
• Construction: Siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Preowned home
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Private yard; Large backyard with grass; Front porch; Patio; RV/boat parking; Outbuilding/shed/storage; Chain link fence; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom includes sitting area
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 5; Fireplace in living room (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,607 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,125
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 M Anthony Loop	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,875 (0%)	1mo	$269,000	$143	99
130 Ebner St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,744 (-7%)	11mo	$219,500	$126	65
801 Pat And Herman #43	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-2%)	11mo	$285,000	$155	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-23,348
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,641
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $394	+0% $318	+5% $242	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $215	+0% $318	+5% $421	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $454	-0.5pp $387	base $318	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-28
   status Active
4. 2026-04-09
   historical
5. 2026-03-09
   listed $269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,310/yr (+$193/mo · 88.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,502
• − Management: −$2,502
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $3,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $269,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.