280 Stevens Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1920 3,030 sqft lot $97/sqft · 30% below area Est $142k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

280 Stevens offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and off-street parking. This property presents a great opportunity for its next owner.

Key facts

• 3,030 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage
• Construction: Existing construction; See remarks for construction materials
• Exterior features: See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Attic; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,859
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -29.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Dutton Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-1%)	4mo	$66,500	$65	78
36 Olympic Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (+2%)	3mo	$112,000	$107	69
204 Carl St	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,089 (+6%)	10mo	$90,000	$83	65
102 Carl St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,158 (+12%)	2mo	$124,900	$108	61
160 Zenner St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,072 (+4%)	4mo	$90,000	$84	60
22 Schuele Ave	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,066 (+4%)	9mo	$200,000	$188	59
65 Alma Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,090 (+6%)	12mo	$75,000	$69	49
48 Dorris Ave	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (+13%)	6mo	$35,000	$30	44
93 Alma Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+10%)	12mo	$91,000	$80	43
68 Wecker St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+12%)	6mo	$180,000	$157	42
67 Montana Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,182 (+15%)	9mo	$68,000	$58	33
849 Woodlawn Ave	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,124 (+9%)	14mo	$168,800	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,488
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $41,434
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $241/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $741

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $545	+0% $517	+5% $489	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $462	+0% $517	+5% $572	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $542	base $517	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Sussex St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	0.37mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.61mi
17 Proctor Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.73mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	16d	1	0.84mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	45d	1	0.87mi
249 Newburgh Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	45d	1	0.89mi
160 Courtland Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,025	$1.27	16d	1	0.98mi
56 Hagen St #2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
61 Courtland Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.99mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	5d	1	1.03mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	16d	1	1.05mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	5d	1	1.10mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	25d	1	1.10mi
190 Manhattan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	724	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.13mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	45d	1	1.17mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	1.19mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	3d	1	1.33mi
2532 Main St Apt 7 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	45d	1	1.33mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	16d	1	1.43mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	16d	1	1.43mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	1.44mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	840	$1,850	$2.20	45d	1	1.46mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	45d	1	1.46mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	45d	1	1.47mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $99,900 Active 129-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $241 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$724/yr (+$60/mo · 300.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$241
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $5,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $241 · +26.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.