8015 Purple Aster Pass · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$344,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 380 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,100 sqft lot $144/sqft · 25% below area Est $460k · 25% under $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1101 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,763 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,259
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -25.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22913 Agave Grove Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5	2,395 (0%)	3mo	$355,000	$148	85
8109 Royal Mint Cv	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,285 (-5%)	6mo	$424,990	$186	80
8317 Royal Elflower Rd	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,530 (+6%)	6mo	$449,900	$178	79
7901 Tessera Pkwy	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,299 (-4%)	4mo	$649,000	$282	77
8119 Prairie Rye Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,359 (-2%)	3mo	$435,000	$184	70
8006 Shining Flor Run	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,261 (-6%)	4mo	$379,900	$168	65
8512 Pine Muhly Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,422 (+1%)	2mo	$524,950	$217	64
22610 Maidengrass Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,240 (-6%)	3mo	$439,000	$196	64
22600 Fountaingrass Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,104 (-12%)	4mo	$385,000	$183	53
8010 Shining Flor Run	0.45mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (-15%)	1mo	$374,900	$184	49
8013 Shining Flor Run	0.43mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,078 (-13%)	3mo	$369,900	$178	48
8520 Red Bottle Brush Rd	0.75mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,068 (-14%)	5mo	$475,000	$230	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-91,080
• Equity at exit: $51,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-124,100
• Equity at exit: $29,821

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1101
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$685 /mo · $8,224/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,438

Max offer price $246,763

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-360	-5% $-458	+0% $-556	+5% $-653	+10% $-751
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-664	+0% $-556	+5% $-448	+10% $-340
Rate	-1.0pp $-382	-0.5pp $-468	base $-556	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-736

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	6d	1	0.17mi
8000 Prairie Rye Dr Lago Vista, TX	5.0	2.5	2645	$2,595	$0.98	0d	1	0.26mi
7609 Turnback Ledge Trl Lago Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,990	$1.22	0d	1	0.42mi
22419 Red Sage Cv Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,800	$1.35	45d	1	0.84mi
20806 Northland Cir Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1962	$3,500	$1.78	0d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $344,900 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,900 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,900 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,900 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,900 Active 374 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,900 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,900 Active 368 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,900 Active 367 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,900 Active 366 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,900 Active 363 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 362 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 361 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 360 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 359 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

16. 2026-04-30
    historical Active Under Contract 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

17. 2026-03-26
    price $349,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

18. 2026-01-12
    price $359,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

19. 2025-10-30
    price $374,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

20. 2025-10-02
    price $379,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

21. 2025-08-28
    price $384,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

22. 2025-07-11
    price $399,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

23. 2025-06-18
    price $414,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

24. 2025-06-06
    listed $425,000 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home with primary bedroom down, located on a corner lot with partial greenbelt and rolling hill views. Features a modern kitchen with quartz countertops, island, and gas cooktop, plus open living spaces filled with natural light. The primary bath offers a soaking tub and walk-in shower. Upstairs includes 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and massive second living area. Exterior highlights: wrought iron fencing, 2-car garage, and covered back patio. Resort-style community amenities: infinity-edge pool, boat ramp, sport courts, playgrounds, and miles of hiking trails. Highly rated schools.

25. 2025-02-19
    status Active
26. 2025-01-31
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,224 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$8,224
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,625
• − Management: −$2,625
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$12,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-story home is in good condition with modern amenities and a desirable location. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and safety
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and safety ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $349,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $359,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $374,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $379,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $384,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $399,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $414,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $425,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-19 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+77.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,224 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.