18966 Monterey · Hesperia, CA 92345

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1979 7,424 sqft lot $159/sqft · 20% below area Est $248k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured Home on Owned Land – Fixer Opportunity Manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with approximately 1,248 sq ft of living space, situated on a 7,424 sq ft lot. Land is owned (no space rent). Property requires repairs and updating. Located in a quiet neighborhood with no neighbors directly in front, providing open desert and flatland views and added privacy. Lot offers space and flexibility for improvements. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all information including square footage, lot size, condition, zoning, and utilities.

Key facts

• Open desert views
• Added privacy
• Flatland views

Tags

• FIXER OPPORTUNITY
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN DESERT VIEWS
• FLATLAND VIEWS
• ADDED PRIVACY
• SPACE FOR IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Hesperia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,009 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Hesperia Unified (suburban): math 20% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #353 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $199k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.27%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,000
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -19.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19237 Hinton St	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	5mo	$140,000	$117	69
19199 Monterey St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	16mo	$155,000	$124	64
19226 Lindsay St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$285,000	$228	63
19265 Monterey St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	23mo	$299,900	$240	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,814
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,378
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92345

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,752/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $208	+0% $152	+5% $95	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $72	+0% $152	+5% $231	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $202	base $152	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19179 Monterey St Hesperia, CA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,845	$2.35	0d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $199,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Manufactured Home on Owned Land – Fixer Opportunity Manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with approximately 1,248 sq ft of living space, situated on a 7,424 sq ft lot. Land is owned (no space rent). Property requires repairs and updating. Located in a quiet neighborhood with no neighbors directly in front, providing open desert and flatland views and added privacy. Lot offers space and flexibility for improvements. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all information including square footage, lot size, condition, zoning, and utilities.

3. 2025-11-13
   soldstatus $80,000
4. 2009-10-28
   soldstatus $63,000
5. 1999-10-01
   soldstatus $34,000
6. 1993-12-22
   soldstatus $39,000
7. 1987-06-03
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,752
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$332
• After-tax cash flow: $2,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hesperia Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600014
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,376
• Composite: 25.66/100
• National rank: #7397
• State rank: #353 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hesperia

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1009
• US rank: #24896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hesperia, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 110,055
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 88,706
• Household income: $69,485
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2768.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.87%
• Current HPI: 433.2103
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+373.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,752 · +83.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.