652 Baker St · Cumberland, MD 21502

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1885 2,641 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright, open living space with warm hardwood floors and natural light. Perfect for families seeking a stylish, move‑in‑ready home that blends comfort, and value. Lead free cert available. Some photos are Virtually Staged" or Digitally Altered Landscape. - see photo description

Key facts

• 2,641 sq ft lot
• Built 1885
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Fee simple ownership; Property condition listed as very good; Property manager present

Exterior

• Parking: Private off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Estimated year built
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Double-hung, double-pane windows
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Partially fenced; Porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window cooling units (electric)
• Interior features: Dining area; Kitchen with table space; Upgraded countertops; Living Room; Dining Room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in basement; Basement laundry hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($470/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: John Humbird Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 234 students, 87% FRL); Washington Middle (math 7% / reading 30%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 583 students, 62% FRL); Fort Hill High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 692 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $139k implies a 1109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,177 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Williams St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-11%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	75
880 Maryland Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-2%)	3mo	$84,500	$70	72
408 Broadway St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+10%)	10mo	$85,000	$63	66
504 Prince George St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-6%)	6mo	$252,600	$219	64
6 Race St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+4%)	5mo	$10,000	$8	64
408 Prince George St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,116 (-9%)	9mo	$170,000	$152	56
615 Elwood St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-6%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	55
920 Maryland Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+14%)	7mo	$46,350	$33	52
129 Race St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,330 (+8%)	2mo	$90,400	$68	52
618 Brookfield Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+10%)	9mo	$144,500	$107	48
533 Fort Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+11%)	4mo	$120,000	$88	44
604 White Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+10%)	4mo	$180,000	$134	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-13,925
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $18,895
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,112

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $78	+0% $39	+5% $0	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-7	+0% $39	+5% $85	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $74	base $39	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Spring St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1332	$950	$0.71	45d	1	0.08mi
131 Grand Ave Cumberland, MD	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,300	$0.90	45d	1	0.74mi
118 Independence St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,250	$0.99	46d	1	0.84mi
415 Grand Ave Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.94mi
516 Bedford St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,195	$0.80	45d	1	0.97mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1B Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	45d	1	1.00mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1C Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	45d	1	1.00mi
529 N Centre St Unit Rear Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	982	$850	$0.87	45d	1	1.17mi
423 Furnace St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,250	$0.87	45d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 277-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $975 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$460
• After-tax cash flow: $929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1108.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-03 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $435 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.