3015 W Gulf Dr #102 · Sanibel, FL 33957

$875,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Condo public records · 458 Days on market

Built 1985 $1881/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extremely well taken care of two bedroom, two bathroom condominium. Direct Gulf front with unobstructed gulf views, updated kitchen, freshly painted throughout! Large lanai overlooking the beach. Assigned parking and storage unit below this building. This small complex off West Gulf Drive offers elevator from garage to units, pool and tennis amenities, paver driveway, electric storm shutters and privacy all in a very relaxed atmosphere!

Key facts

• Beachfront living
• Designer tile
• $1,881 HOA

Tags

• BEACHFRONT LIVING
• UNOBSTRUCTED GULFVIEW
• COASTAL MODERN AESTHETIC
• OMEGA PEARL CABINETRY
• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING
• DESIGNER TILE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Quarterly association fee; Association covers insurance, irrigation water, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, and reserve fund; Community amenities include beach rights/access, barbecue/picnic areas, pool, tennis courts, elevator, and management

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned underground parking (one space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: Condominium (single-story unit); Entry level: 1; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Raised foundation; Built-up and flat roof
• Exterior features: Lanai and screened porch; Tennis courts on property; Community in-ground pool (private access indicated); Gulf waterfront access and views; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar (kitchen passthrough)
• Bedrooms: Split bedrooms (single-story entry level)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Casement and sliding windows; Breakfast bar; Open living/dining area; Split bedroom floor plan; Unfurnished; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $875k).
• Recommended offer: $770k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 458 days — a 12% lower offer ($770k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $325k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $740k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $770,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 458 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.18%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $224,761
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $671,405
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$533 /mo · $6,398/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,881
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,596
• Net cashflow: $5,734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,866

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,230	-5% $5,982	+0% $5,734	+5% $5,487	+10% $5,239
Rent	-10% $4,381	-5% $5,058	+0% $5,734	+5% $6,411	+10% $7,087
Rate	-1.0pp $6,175	-0.5pp $5,957	base $5,734	+0.5pp $5,508	+1.0pp $5,277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 47B Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$20,000	$16.09	24d	1	0.99mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 32E Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$18,000	$14.48	24d	1	1.06mi
707 Durion Ct Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$12,000	$9.19	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,881 · $22,572/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $875,000 Active 458 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 457 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $875,000 Active 456 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $875,000 Active 454 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $875,000 Active 450 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $875,000 Active 448 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $875,000 Active 443 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $875,000 Active 442 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $875,000 Active 441 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    price $875,000
11. 2026-03-23
    price $930,000
12. 2026-03-10
    price $980,000
13. 2026-03-09
    status Active
14. 2026-03-07
    historical
15. 2025-11-18
    price $995,000
16. 2025-03-14
    listed $1,200,000 Active
17. 2025-03-08
    historical
18. 2024-11-04
    price $1,200,000
19. 2024-11-04
    price $1,200,999
20. 2024-03-18
    listed $1,200,000 Active
21. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $740,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Extremely well taken care of two bedroom, two bathroom condominium. Direct Gulf front with unobstructed gulf views, updated kitchen, freshly painted throughout! Large lanai overlooking the beach. Assigned parking and storage unit below this building. This small complex off West Gulf Drive offers elevator from garage to units, pool and tennis amenities, paver driveway, electric storm shutters and privacy all in a very relaxed atmosphere!

22. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $740,000

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Extremely well taken care of two bedroom, two bathroom condominium. Direct Gulf front with unobstructed gulf views, updated kitchen, freshly painted throughout! Large lanai overlooking the beach. Assigned parking and storage unit below this building. This small complex off West Gulf Drive offers elevator from garage to units, pool and tennis amenities, paver driveway, electric storm shutters and privacy all in a very relaxed atmosphere!

23. 2010-05-11
    price $835,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Extremely well taken care of two bedroom, two bathroom condominium. Direct Gulf front with unobstructed gulf views, updated kitchen, freshly painted throughout! Large lanai overlooking the beach. Assigned parking and storage unit below this building. This small complex off West Gulf Drive offers elevator from garage to units, pool and tennis amenities, paver driveway, electric storm shutters and privacy all in a very relaxed atmosphere!

24. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,398 · $533/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,262 · $605/mo
• Expected delta: +$864/yr (+$72/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $205,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$6,398
• − Insurance: −$9,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,439
• − Management: −$16,439
• − HOA: −$22,572
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $59,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14,323
• After-tax cash flow: $54,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+243.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $875,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $930,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $980,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $995,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $1,200,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $1,200,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $1,200,999 FORTMLS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $1,200,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $740,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $740,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-05-11 Price Changed $835,000 FORTMLS
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,398 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.