134 Michigan Ave · Watertown, NY 13601

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,118 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1896 6,250 sqft lot Est $148k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment potential! Rent out both units or live in one and let the other cover the mortgage. This well-maintained duplex features a new metal roof, a composite-decked front porch, and lovely summer landscaping. It also boasts a spacious driveway with a 2-car garage. Each unit has a separate entrance and utilities. The upstairs apartment has a new furnace, and the lower level unit is in good condition. Some new appliances and flooring as well as new paint. This is a fantastic value add opportunity!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Separate entrance
• New furnace

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• COMPOSITE DECKED FRONT PORCH
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,642/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1634% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $189k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.71%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,260
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 S Pleasant St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,182 (+3%)	10mo	$152,000	$70	69
133 Central St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,353 (+11%)	23mo	$177,000	$75	38
119 State Pl	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-13%)	16mo	$38,500	$21	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $38,689
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $168,474
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,642 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,776/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $869

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 62%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,642
Total (2 units)			$2,642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,440	$1.00	44d	9	0.26mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.63mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	44d	1	0.68mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,462	$1.06	44d	6	0.70mi
417 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,750	$0.58	44d	1	0.81mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.97mi
128 Park Ave Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,400	$1.04	44d	1	1.22mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-10
   listed $189,000 Active
5. 2015-12-23
   soldstatus $123,000
6. 2015-11-01
   historical
7. 2015-05-13
   listed $134,900
8. 2014-10-15
   historical
9. 2014-04-15
   listed $144,900
10. 2004-11-12
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 39.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,776
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $7,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,878
• After-tax cash flow: $8,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2015-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $134,900 CNYIS
• 2014-10-15 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-04-15 Listed $144,900 CNYIS
• 2004-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,776 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.