2724 Nc 6370 · Mount Judea, AR 72655

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 467 Days on market

Built 1974 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Deer Camp Special! Located on an acre of land, this home is perfect for someone who is looking for a fixer upper to make their own. Near national forest so great hunting cabin. Great bones and a large front porch to take in the serenity of the area. Near Council Rock Forest Reserve, Ozark Nat'l Forest, and Ricketts Mountain Bluffs Trail. Also has mountain views from the back and a small shed for extra storage. Home sold as is.

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Mountain views
• 1.1 acre lot

Tags

• FIXER UPPER POTENTIAL
• NATIONAL FOREST PROXIMITY
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($882 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Deer/Mt. Judea School District (rural): math 25% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #183 of 238 in AR (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 467 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 467 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.14%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $30,932
• Equity at exit: $20,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $74,381
• Equity at exit: $31,183

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72655

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $375

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-17
   status Active
3. 2025-03-01
   historical
4. 2024-09-01
   historical
5. 2024-03-29
   listed $45,000 Active
6. 2024-03-27
   listed $45,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$846
• − Management: −$846
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $3,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer/Mt. Judea School District
• NCES district ID: 0500072
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,340
• Composite: 21.0/100
• National rank: #8456
• State rank: #183 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mount Judea

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 353

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,052 people
• By 2030: 6,509 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 5,424 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 4,502 · -36.2%
• By 2075: 3,018 · -57.2%
• By 2100: 1,985 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.1% · R 81.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $45,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $45,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+51.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $494 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.