3946 E Shaeffer Ave · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · Land public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1971 0.34 ac lot $141/sqft · 45% above area Est $69k · 45% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Huge lot
• Sheds

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• FULLY FENCED
• RV HOOKUPS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.38%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 44.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $16,138
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $45,572
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $333/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $100,000 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

4. 2026-04-10
   price $105,000 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $110,000 Active 459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (459 chars)

   PRICE REDUCTION. .. PRIVATE FINANCING IS AVAILABLE WITH DOWN PAYMENT!!! Don't let this one of a kind property pass you by! Huge lot. . . 34 ac. Fully fenced, rose bushes, beautiful trees, RV hookups, detached garage, sheds and a home to boot. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. A lot of work has been done but it does need a few extra touches. This property is well worth the asking price!!. Call your Realtor to make an appt to see, you will not be sorry.

6. 2025-04-29
   price $120,000
7. 2025-04-21
   listed $125,000 Active
8. 2015-07-02
   soldstatus $49,535
9. 2001-08-16
   soldstatus $35,000
10. 1998-10-01
    soldstatus $40,000
11. 1996-05-16
    soldstatus $33,070

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $333 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 98.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥100°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$333
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,413
• − Management: −$1,413
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $5,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+202.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $100,000 WARDEX
• 2026-04-20 Pending — WARDEX
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $105,000 WARDEX
• 2026-03-31 Listed $110,000 WARDEX
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $120,000 WARDEX
• 2025-04-21 Listed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2015-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $49,535 Public Records
• 2001-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $33,070 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $333 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.