14200 Savannah Rd · Timbercreek Canyon, TX 79118

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Embrace the freedom of country style living on a spacious lot that offers almost an acre of land to spread out. This residence features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that serves as the heart of the home. A dedicated room for an office provides the perfect quiet space for remote work, while the isolated primary suite ensures maximum privacy. Outside, the property is a hobbyist's dream, boasting a spacious two-stall detached garage and an additional storage building that houses a secure storm shelter. With incredible outdoor space, safety features, and a highly functional layout, this property offers a rare combination of utility and comfort. Schedul

Key facts

• Secure storm shelter
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

Tags

• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• DEDICATED ROOM FOR OFFICE
• ISOLATED PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO-STALL DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE BUILDING
• SECURE STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with front-facing door and opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Solar energy generation; Storage structure on property; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room (wood-burning); Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#697 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.57%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,111
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $74,573
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,727/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $552	+0% $510	+5% $467	+10% $425
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $434	+0% $510	+5% $585	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $548	base $510	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $149,900 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $149,900 Active
18. 2023-01-23
    soldstatus
19. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,727 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,727
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$944
• After-tax cash flow: $5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Timbercreek Canyon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #13032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $149,900 AARMLS
• 2023-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,727 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.