202 E 5th St · Oswego, NY 13126

$35,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1900 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the East Side of Oswego! This three bedroom; two bath Colonial sits just moments from Oswego State University and has enormous potential. The property features off street parking and a large backyard. The interior features spacious rooms with an open kitchen and ideal floor plan.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 141 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.2% vs local median 8.8% in Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Charles E Riley Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 379 students, 63% FRL); Oswego Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #469 of 729 statewide, top 65%, 566 students, 53% FRL); Oswego High School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,069 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $788 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $35k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.91%
• DSCR: 9.41
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 1/2 E 3rd St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+3%)	1mo	$42,000	$23	80
74 E Oneida St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,886 (+6%)	4mo	$125,000	$66	69
216 W 4th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,783 (-0%)	2mo	$134,900	$76	65
51 E Albany St	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	2mo	$179,900	$117	62
55 Catherine St	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,852 (+4%)	4mo	$200,000	$108	59
274 W 5th St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,834 (+3%)	4mo	$160,000	$87	55
121 E 3rd St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,591 (-11%)	4mo	$140,000	$88	55
42 W Mohawk St	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,701 (-5%)	7mo	$120,000	$71	50
81 E 5th St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,592 (-11%)	2mo	$44,000	$28	49
30 E 4th St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	6mo	$144,000	$94	36
96 Ellen St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,017 (+13%)	5mo	$272,500	$135	34
132 Lyon St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (-13%)	6mo	$85,000	$55	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.78×
• Total profit: $105,665
• Equity at exit: $6,395

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.96×
• Total profit: $273,983
• Equity at exit: $5,085

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $1,543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,567	-5% $1,555	+0% $1,543	+5% $1,531	+10% $1,519
Rent	-10% $1,364	-5% $1,454	+0% $1,543	+5% $1,632	+10% $1,721
Rate	-1.0pp $1,560	-0.5pp $1,552	base $1,543	+0.5pp $1,534	+1.0pp $1,524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	15d	1	0.43mi
14 Pond Path Oswego, NY	3.0	1.5	1408	$2,300	$1.63	15d	1	0.63mi
175 W 8th St Unit 1 A Oswego, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,625	$1.46	45d	1	0.86mi
152 W 7th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,300	$0.98	15d	1	0.88mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	15d	1	0.93mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	1.01mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	15d	1	1.01mi
137 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	5.0	2.5	1904	$2,875	$1.51	45d	1	1.02mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	15d	1	1.02mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	15d	1	1.05mi
9 Lathrop St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	15d	1	1.06mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	15d	1	1.11mi
138 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,300	$1.15	15d	1	1.11mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	15d	1	1.11mi
144 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	15d	1	1.11mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	15d	1	1.14mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	15d	1	1.16mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	15d	1	1.17mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	15d	1	1.18mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	15d	1	1.19mi
164 W Schuyler St Unit A Oswego, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	15d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2021-01-31
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
3. 2020-11-12
   price $35,000
4. 2020-09-12
   listed $42,000 Active
5. 1995-03-06
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $19,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,582
• After-tax cash flow: $13,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2021-01-31 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-11-12 Price Changed $35,000 CNYIS
• 2020-09-12 Listed $42,000 CNYIS
• 1995-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,344 · +52.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.