Abby Plan · Amarillo, TX 79124

$240,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily · 608 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Vinyl siding accents
• Open-concept kitchen
• Garage

Tags

• VINYL SIDING ACCENTS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SECLUDED MASTER SUITE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-205/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 608 days — a 12% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,617 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 608 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,100
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,190
• Equity at exit: $20,833

Cash invested: $67,466 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79124

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,264
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$301 /mo · $3,614/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,108

Max offer price $238,480

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,238
• Closing costs: $7,228
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3013 Swenson St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,400	$1.49	20d	1	0.39mi
2808 Haystack Way Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,850	$1.83	43d	1	0.40mi
8910 Hockley St Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,850	$1.84	43d	1	0.44mi
2801 Ranch House Rd Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,100	$1.74	43d	1	0.47mi
7727 Cervin Dr Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	43d	1	0.85mi
7603 Canode Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	13d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,950 Active 608 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,950 Active 607 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,950 Active 606 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,950 Active 605 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,950 Active 603 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,950 Active 602 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,950 Active 600 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,950 Active 599 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,950 Active 598 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,950 Active 597 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $240,950 Active 594 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,950 Active 593 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,950 Active 592 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,950 Active 591 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,950 Active 590 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $236,950 Active 589 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $236,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

18. 2025-03-26
    price $230,950 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

19. 2024-10-19
    listed $236,950 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    The 1,300 square-foot Abby floor plan is a spacious, well-connected layout with the flexibility to fit your day-to-day. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertopsSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,497
• − Property taxes: −$3,614
• − Insurance: −$1,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$7,009
• Taxable loss: −$4,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, spacious single-family home with a good condition score and modern finishes is ready for a new owner. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and enhances the home's aesthetic appeal.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and enhances the home's aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• City population: 185,802
• Population (ZIP): 11,800

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.66%
• Current HPI: 165.6073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $236,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $230,950 Zillow
• 2024-10-19 Listed $236,950 Zillow