12317 Locke Pl · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,503 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1979 0.26 ac lot $163/sqft · 31% above area Est $237k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12317 Locke Place, a beautifully maintained home nestled in the heart of Ocean Springs. This charming property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept layout filled with natural light, complemented by well-appointed finishes throughout. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, new appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-designed layout and en-suite bath, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy a peaceful backyard space, perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near top-rated schools, shopping, and dining and just minutes from the beautiful Gulf Coast, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility. Did I mention this home also has a new HVAC system? Don't miss your opportunity to own a piece of Ocean Springs; schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Private retreat
• Peaceful backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Gulf Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St Martin East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 685 students, 100% FRL); St. Martin Middle School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 179 statewide, top 30%, 995 students, 100% FRL); St Martin High School (math 65% / reading 49%, grade C, #8 of 197 statewide, top 4%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,053 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.27%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,040
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 3.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6221 Moreton Pl	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,460 (-3%)	2mo	$175,900	$120	82
12309 Keats Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	11mo	$235,000	$149	75
6500 Lancaster Blvd	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,580 (+5%)	2mo	$219,900	$139	67
12328 Kaiser Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,398 (-7%)	11mo	$194,000	$139	65
6601 Lancaster Blvd	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,554 (+3%)	6mo	$194,999	$125	64
6513 Lancaster Blvd	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,355 (-10%)	4mo	$183,000	$135	56
2004 Tammy St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-0%)	10mo	$249,000	$166	54
6608 Columbus Cir	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,360 (-10%)	7mo	$179,900	$132	51
6688 Balboa Cir	0.50mi	4/1.0	1,300 (-14%)	1mo	$185,000	$142	49
6321 Chaucer Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (-12%)	2mo	$230,000	$175	45
6237 Browning Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,374 (-9%)	4mo	$159,500	$116	43
6256 Byron Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+14%)	10mo	$149,900	$88	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,967
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,800
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,241/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $199	+0% $130	+5% $60	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $49	+0% $130	+5% $211	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $192	base $130	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6217 Browning Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.62mi
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,950	$1.41	23d	1	0.77mi
6249 Tennyson Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,600	$1.17	23d	1	0.80mi
6428 Poco Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,500	$1.26	45d	1	1.10mi
2401 Esplanade St Unit B Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,225	$0.98	23d	1	1.11mi
6721 Washington Ave Ocean Springs, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,696	$1.56	15d	12	1.15mi
12293 Massachusetts Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.18mi
12297 Massachusetts Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	1.18mi
2501 Gladiolus St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $245,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $245,000 Pending 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-05-07
    price $245,000 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to 12317 Locke Place, a beautifully maintained home nestled in the heart of Ocean Springs. This charming property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept layout filled with natural light, complemented by well-appointed finishes throughout. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, new appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-designed layout and en-suite bath, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy a peaceful backyard space, perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near top-rated schools, shopping, and dining and just minutes from the beautiful Gulf Coast, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility. Did I mention this home also has a new HVAC system? Don't miss your opportunity to own a piece of Ocean Springs; schedule your private showing today.

13. 2026-04-12
    listed $255,000 Active 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Welcome to 12317 Locke Place, a beautifully maintained home nestled in the heart of Ocean Springs. This charming property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to discover a spacious, open-concept layout filled with natural light, complemented by well-appointed finishes throughout. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring ample cabinetry, generous counter space, new appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-designed layout and en-suite bath, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy a peaceful backyard space, perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings. Conveniently located near top-rated schools, shopping, and dining and just minutes from the beautiful Gulf Coast, this home offers both tranquility and accessibility. Did I mention this home also has a new HVAC system? Don't miss your opportunity to own a piece of Ocean Springs; schedule your private showing today.

14. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    NEW CERAMIC COUNTER TOPS IN KITCHEN LARGE HOUSE FOR BIG FAMILY ADDENDUMS ATTACHED IN ATTACHEMENTS,

15. 2010-07-06
    listed $62,000 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    NEW CERAMIC COUNTER TOPS IN KITCHEN LARGE HOUSE FOR BIG FAMILY ADDENDUMS ATTACHED IN ATTACHEMENTS,

16. 2005-12-12
    soldstatus
17. 2005-10-19
    listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 56.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,241
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$635
• After-tax cash flow: $2,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+88.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $245,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-12 Listed $255,000 MLSU
• 2010-12-17 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-07-06 Listed $62,000 MLSU
• 2005-12-12 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-10-19 Listed $130,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,241 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.