731 Salto Shipwreck Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all listed rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Kitchen-family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

🏗️ New construction. The $234,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,296.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,619 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,296
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -12.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-54,654
• Equity at exit: $40,004

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,147
• Equity at exit: $23,197

Cash invested: $75,123 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,407
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $245,691

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,074
• Closing costs: $8,049
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Fishhawk Way Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,863	$1.36	4d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,990 Active 48 DOM

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-06-18
   price $234,990 Active 47 DOM

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,990 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 618-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,990 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,990 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,990 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $232,190 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-12
    price $228,890 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-05-11
    price $228,890 586-char remark
19. 2026-05-08
    price $224,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-05-07
    price $224,990 586-char remark
21. 2026-05-01
    listed $241,240 Active 586-char remark
22. 2026-04-28
    price $241,240 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

23. 2026-04-26
    listed $237,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,093/yr (+$258/mo · 256.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,029
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,805
• Taxable loss: −$6,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-21/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $232,190 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $232,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $228,890 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $228,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $241,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $241,240 Zillow
• 2026-04-26 Listed $237,990 Zillow