45 Goya Dr · Fairfield, CA 94534

$167,232

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 86 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $134/sqft · 25% below area Est $222k · 25% under ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom 1248 Sq FT Home In The Highly Desirable Casa Nova Senior Mobile Home Park. Features Updated Bathrooms, Newer Flooring, Duel Pane Windows And Is Move In Ready. Enjoy The Spacious Club House, Swimming Pool And Free Weekly Food Program. This Home Has No Rear Neighbors And A Beautiful Hillside View .

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• No rear neighbors
• Swimming pool

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEWER FLOORING
• DUEL PAIN WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS CLUB HOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $167k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,198 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,672
• List price: $167,232
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Goya Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$188	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,693
• Equity at exit: $24,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $34,324
• Equity at exit: $14,459

Cash invested: $46,825 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94534

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$877
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,463

Max offer price $167,232

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,808
• Closing costs: $5,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2550 Hilborn Rd Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,563	$2.95	14d	16	0.16mi
1111 Alaska Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$2,249	$2.86	14d	10	0.51mi
2355 Fairfield Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	769	$1,740	$2.26	14d	3	0.52mi
2450 Peach Tree Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$2,199	$2.71	14d	2	0.61mi
100 Hawthorn Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$2,249	$3.10	14d	11	0.75mi
2915 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,350	$2.79	14d	1	0.80mi
2915 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,225	$2.66	43d	2	0.80mi
237 Alaska Ave Unit 8 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	43d	1	0.81mi
2215 Peach Tree Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	701	$2,375	$3.39	14d	3	0.85mi
3001 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,374	$2.55	14d	8	0.85mi
131 Alaska Ave Apt 12 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	43d	1	0.86mi
540 Pacific Ave Unit 6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,800	$2.25	23d	1	0.88mi
2134 Union Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,395	$2.52	43d	1	0.88mi
101 Tabor Ave Unit A Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	1.02mi
181 Pacific Ave Unit 205D Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	808	$1,675	$2.07	23d	1	1.03mi
195 E Pacific Ave Unit 19 Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,949	$1.95	14d	1	1.12mi
451 Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1269	$2,500	$1.97	43d	1	1.16mi
2101 Santa Ana Dr Apt 48 Fairfield, CA	1.0	1.0	772	$1,395	$1.81	43d	1	1.17mi
175 Rogue Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1240	$2,500	$2.02	43d	1	1.18mi
362 Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1269	$2,500	$1.97	23d	1	1.19mi
2578 Pembrook Way Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,650	$2.35	43d	1	1.20mi
2124 Santa Ana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,020	$2.02	43d	1	1.20mi
1206 Dana Dr Unit 02 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,925	$1.75	43d	1	1.26mi
2217 Santa Fe Ct Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,700	$1.93	43d	1	1.32mi
1240 Dana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	43d	1	1.32mi
319 E Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,111	$3.38	21d	4	1.39mi
2800 Dover Ave Unit G6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,095	$2.21	23d	1	1.39mi
50 El Basset Ct #50 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,450	$2.88	43d	1	1.41mi
1736 Fillmore St Unit 1 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	43d	1	1.41mi
53 El Basset Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	997	$2,100	$2.11	14d	1	1.43mi
1712 Arthur Ct Unit 1712A Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,800	$2.43	21d	1	1.47mi
1600 Travion Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,950	$2.33	43d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,232 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $167,232 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $167,232 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $167,232 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $167,232 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,232 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,232 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,232 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $167,232 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $167,232 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $167,232 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $167,232 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $167,232 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $167,232 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $167,232 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    This Beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom 1248 Sq FT Home In The Highly Desirable Casa Nova Senior Mobile Home Park. Features Updated Bathrooms, Newer Flooring, Duel Pane Windows And Is Move In Ready. Enjoy The Spacious Club House, Swimming Pool And Free Weekly Food Program. This Home Has No Rear Neighbors And A Beautiful Hillside View .

16. 2026-03-24
    listed $190,000 Active 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    This Beautiful 2 Bedroom 2 Bathroom 1248 Sq FT Home In The Highly Desirable Casa Nova Senior Mobile Home Park. Features Updated Bathrooms, Newer Flooring, Duel Pane Windows And Is Move In Ready. Enjoy The Spacious Club House, Swimming Pool And Free Weekly Food Program. This Home Has No Rear Neighbors And A Beautiful Hillside View .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,368
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$836
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − Depreciation: −$4,865
• Taxable income: $5,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $6,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Casa Nova Senior Mobile Home Park is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping, and can be further improved with some cosmetic updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Replacing the carpet with hardwood flooring can increase the home's value and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Install new windows — Installing new windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value.
• Both Update the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and make it more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood flooring — Replacing the carpet with hardwood flooring can increase the home's value and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install new windows — Installing new windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value. ↑
• Both Update the kitchen and bathrooms — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,203
• Household income: $140,198
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Asian 24% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.51%
• Current HPI: 236.509
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $167,232 BAREIS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $190,000 BAREIS