225 Greenestead Dr · Efland, NC 27243

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 0.26 ac lot Est $169k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity in growing Orange County! This property offers strong potential for investors, renovators, or buyers seeking a value-add opportunity in a desirable location. Conveniently situated with easy access to I-40/I-85, Hillsborough, Mebane, Chapel Hill, and Durham, the property benefits from proximity to major employment centers, healthcare, shopping, and dining. The generous lot provides flexibility for future improvements, outdoor amenities, or long-term appreciation potential. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio, renovate and resell, or hold as a long-term investment, this property presents an opportunity to build equity in a high-demand area. Property i

Key facts

• Outdoor amenities
• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I-40/I-85
• OUTDOOR AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.26 acres; Living area approximately 1,302 (above-grade finished); Located in Orange County
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story house; Double wide mobile home body type; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Built as a house/structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Gravel private-maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No listed heating system; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#380 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $155k implies a 6639% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,728
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 Gaines Chapel Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-12%)	6mo	$148,000	$131	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,996
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $38,659
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27243

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $754/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3511 Forrest Ave Efland, NC	4.0	1.5	1163	$1,750	$1.50	14d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $754 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$754
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$701
• After-tax cash flow: $4,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703480
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,908
• Composite: 34.8/100
• National rank: #5109
• State rank: #108 of 178 in NC

Livability — Efland

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #14987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Efland, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,506

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.02%
• Current HPI: 222.2193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+6639.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $155,000 TMLS
• 1987-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $2,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $754 · +47.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.