2627 Ontario Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1930 3,000 sqft lot $71/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Equally desirable to both owner occupants and investors alike! Seller of this adorable two bedroom, one full bathroom ranch on a fully fenced lot is MOTIVATED for a quick sale, so hurray and take advantage of this opportunity! Spacious living room, eat in kitchen, full basement, forced air heating. Currently rented for $1,100. * Can be bought as a bundle; 2627 Ontario MLS B1657800, 1303 Ontario MLS B1657796, and 1351 North Ave MLS B1657792 *

Key facts

• 3,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $75k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.17%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,778
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -55.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2540 Jerauld Ave	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,108 (+5%)	2mo	$223,000	$201	82
2595 Jerauld Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (+1%)	6mo	$155,000	$145	82
2951 North Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (-3%)	7mo	$78,000	$76	75
2653 Ontario Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-9%)	7mo	$162,500	$169	72
2189 Seneca Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,125 (+6%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	67
2960 Michigan Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+8%)	5mo	$181,000	$158	61
2217 Michigan Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	960 (-9%)	5mo	$40,000	$42	60
2457 Linwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,165 (+10%)	5mo	$129,000	$111	56
3213 Niagara Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,202 (+14%)	4mo	$180,000	$150	56
2475 La Salle Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-3%)	6mo	$129,320	$126	52
3007 Lincoln St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+8%)	6mo	$132,900	$116	50
1812 Pierce Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $20,381
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $59,694
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $562	-5% $536	+0% $511	+5% $485	+10% $459
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $459	+0% $511	+5% $562	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $530	base $511	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	18d	1	0.18mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	0.46mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	3d	1	0.50mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	3d	1	0.50mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.72mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	0.90mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.90mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	1.04mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	25d	1	1.10mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	3d	1	1.22mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	16d	1	1.31mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	1.31mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.32mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	18d	1	1.32mi
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	1.32mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	45d	1	1.42mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	1.42mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	1.43mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    price $75,000 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Equally desirable to both owner occupants and investors alike! Seller of this adorable two bedroom, one full bathroom ranch on a fully fenced lot is MOTIVATED for a quick sale, so hurray and take advantage of this opportunity! Spacious living room, eat in kitchen, full basement, forced air heating. Currently rented for $1,100. * Can be bought as a bundle; 2627 Ontario MLS B1657800, 1303 Ontario MLS B1657796, and 1351 North Ave MLS B1657792 *

17. 2026-01-13
    listed $99,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Equally desirable to both owner occupants and investors alike! Seller of this adorable two bedroom, one full bathroom ranch on a fully fenced lot is MOTIVATED for a quick sale, so hurray and take advantage of this opportunity! Spacious living room, eat in kitchen, full basement, forced air heating. Currently rented for $1,100. * Can be bought as a bundle; 2627 Ontario MLS B1657800, 1303 Ontario MLS B1657796, and 1351 North Ave MLS B1657792 *

18. 2018-09-20
    soldstatus $29,500 Closed Sale or Rented 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Investors check out this 2 bedrm, ranch east of Hyde Park with updates including roof in 2009, exterior doors(2), electric in 2011, newer furnace, new front porch & updated plumbing. Some cosmetics still needed but a lot of the "big" jobs have been done! Fenced back yard also.

19. 2018-06-28
    status Pending Sale 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Investors check out this 2 bedrm, ranch east of Hyde Park with updates including roof in 2009, exterior doors(2), electric in 2011, newer furnace, new front porch & updated plumbing. Some cosmetics still needed but a lot of the "big" jobs have been done! Fenced back yard also.

20. 2018-06-04
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Investors check out this 2 bedrm, ranch east of Hyde Park with updates including roof in 2009, exterior doors(2), electric in 2011, newer furnace, new front porch & updated plumbing. Some cosmetics still needed but a lot of the "big" jobs have been done! Fenced back yard also.

21. 2018-05-25
    listed $34,900 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Investors check out this 2 bedrm, ranch east of Hyde Park with updates including roof in 2009, exterior doors(2), electric in 2011, newer furnace, new front porch & updated plumbing. Some cosmetics still needed but a lot of the "big" jobs have been done! Fenced back yard also.

22. 2016-10-01
    historical
23. 2016-07-21
    price $30,000
24. 2016-02-02
    listed $34,900 Active
25. 2015-12-30
    historical
26. 2015-07-28
    price $34,900
27. 2015-06-29
    listed $37,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $4,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-20 Sold (MLS) $29,500 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-06-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-05-25 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-10-01 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-07-21 Price Changed $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-02 Listed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-28 Price Changed $34,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-29 Listed $37,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,023 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.