3007 Blue Eye Rd · Lincoln, AL 35096

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 260 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $90/sqft · 36% below area Est $178k · 36% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover affordable lakefront living in Blue Eye Waterfront Community at 3007 Blue Eye Road in Lincoln, AL! This brand-new manufactured home features 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for comfort and convenience on a permanent foundation. Home is on a leased lot located directly on the water; you’ll enjoy the peace of Logan Martin Lake right from your own backyard. Residents have access to a dog park, boat launch, and the relaxed lifestyle that comes with lake living. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or an investment opportunity, this property offers tons of potential. Schedule your private tour today and experience all that Blue Eye has to offer!

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Dog park
• Boat launch

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• WATER ACCESS
• DOG PARK
• BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (17.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,133 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,434
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -35.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,146
• Equity at exit: $51,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $31,287
• Equity at exit: $79,085

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $95,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-98	+0% $-137	+5% $-177	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-191	+0% $-137	+5% $-83	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-108	base $-137	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
98 Marine Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,395	$0.94	45d	1	0.29mi
104 Marine Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,300	$0.88	45d	1	0.30mi
106 River Grass Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,425	$0.96	17d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Active 254 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Active 253 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Active 252 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2025-09-23
    listed $115,000 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Discover affordable lakefront living in Blue Eye Waterfront Community at 3007 Blue Eye Road in Lincoln, AL! This brand-new manufactured home features 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, thoughtfully designed for comfort and convenience on a permanent foundation. Home is on a leased lot located directly on the water; you’ll enjoy the peace of Logan Martin Lake right from your own backyard. Residents have access to a dog park, boat launch, and the relaxed lifestyle that comes with lake living. Whether you’re seeking a weekend retreat, full-time residence, or an investment opportunity, this property offers tons of potential. Schedule your private tour today and experience all that Blue Eye has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$5,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$810
• After-tax cash flow: $-838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value for both resale and rental due to its location on the water and modern finishes.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal
• Both Add landscaping around the home — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the home — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-23 Listed $115,000 Greater Alabama MLS