8311 Granite Springs Rd · Rhoadesville, VA 22551

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET Come check out this remodeled home in Spotsylvania County with 5 ACRES of land! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1344 square feet. The seller has taken care of everything for you to include new vinyl siding, laminate style wood floors in the living areas and brand new carpet in the bedrooms, fresh paint, new cabinets, granite counter tops, new stainless steel appliances and MORE! Enjoy your morning coffee on your huge front porch while taking in the wonderful country setting! This home is just a short drive to the Lake Anna State Park.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 5 acre lot
• Built 1998

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WRAP AROUND FRONT DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric service for heating, cooling and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story living (all main living spaces and bedrooms on main level); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Located outside city limits; Use GPS for directions

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Cooling via central A/C and heat pump(s); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area determined from assessor records

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-396/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Rhoadesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 41% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $206k; list at $310k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,106 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,445
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-48,881
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,538/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,383

Max offer price $304,064

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $309,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 453-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $309,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,541 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 65.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,538
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$5,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,407
• After-tax cash flow: $1,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rhoadesville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,146
• Household income: $110,370
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.42%
• Current HPI: 284.319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+128.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $309,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $206,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) $206,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-28 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-21 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-17 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-11 Price Changed $213,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-26 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-24 Price Changed $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-01 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-12 Sold (MLS) $108,531 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-08 Price Changed $107,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-15 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-13 Price Changed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-12 Listed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-19 Price Changed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-01 Listed $135,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,538 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.