290 Rockfish Rd · Raeford, NC 28376

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1989 0.53 ac lot Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Back on the Market at no Fault of the Seller * * Welcome home to your country oasis not far from all of the conveniences of city living. This 3BR 2bath home features resilient cedar siding, a true wood burning masonry fireplace; on demand gas water heater, durable metal roof and NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS. Beautifully engineered hardwood style flooring in the LR, Owners suite and hall, tiled kitchen, NEW wine/beverage fridge and a spacious backyard for all of your entertainment needs. Brand new carpet in the other 2 bedrooms. If you are going to live just a short ride from the most beautiful golf courses you may as well enjoy your very own putting green right in your backyard. * * Listing agent is related to the seller * *

Key facts

• Durable cedar siding
• Inviting front porch
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• THOUGHTFULLY LANDSCAPED LOT
• DURABLE CEDAR SIDING
• LONG-LASTING METAL ROOF
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• WOOD-BURNING MASONRY FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Propane available; 220 Volt electrical service; Holding tank and septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Subdivision: RAEFORD; GPS-friendly directions
• Construction: Cedar construction materials; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Covered rear porch; Porch; Storm doors; Privacy fencing in back yard; Cleared, interior lot; Paved road access; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Storage; Masonry fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($387/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#39 in NC, #3,562 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Hoke Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 576 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $196k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,406 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,588
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
259 Roanoke Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,396 (+3%)	3mo	$257,000	$184	69
152 Roanoke Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	8mo	$244,900	$188	68
181 Cape Fear Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$260,000	$169	60
543 Broad Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+11%)	7mo	$261,100	$173	53
386 Broad Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,517 (+12%)	13mo	$258,000	$170	49
340 Roanoke Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+10%)	15mo	$268,000	$180	46
567 Broad Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+14%)	10mo	$260,000	$168	45
626 Roanoke Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	23mo	$258,000	$183	42
384 Roanoke Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+14%)	13mo	$265,000	$171	39
370 Roanoke Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (+14%)	9mo	$268,000	$173	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,816
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,747
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,893

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
478 Cape Fear Rd Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	23d	1	0.59mi
478 Cape Fear Rd Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	0.59mi
676 Broad Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	0.61mi
728 Roanoke Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1581	$1,950	$1.23	23d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $245,000 Active
2. 2023-12-20
   soldstatus $195,900 Closed 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   * * Back on the Market at no Fault of the Seller * * Welcome home to your country oasis not far from all of the conveniences of city living. This 3BR 2bath home features resilient cedar siding, a true wood burning masonry fireplace; on demand gas water heater, durable metal roof and NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS. Beautifully engineered hardwood style flooring in the LR, Owners suite and hall, tiled kitchen, NEW wine/beverage fridge and a spacious backyard for all of your entertainment needs. Brand new carpet in the other 2 bedrooms. If you are going to live just a short ride from the most beautiful golf courses you may as well enjoy your very own putting green right in your backyard. * * Listing agent is related to the seller * *

3. 2023-11-17
   status Pending 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   * * Back on the Market at no Fault of the Seller * * Welcome home to your country oasis not far from all of the conveniences of city living. This 3BR 2bath home features resilient cedar siding, a true wood burning masonry fireplace; on demand gas water heater, durable metal roof and NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS. Beautifully engineered hardwood style flooring in the LR, Owners suite and hall, tiled kitchen, NEW wine/beverage fridge and a spacious backyard for all of your entertainment needs. Brand new carpet in the other 2 bedrooms. If you are going to live just a short ride from the most beautiful golf courses you may as well enjoy your very own putting green right in your backyard. * * Listing agent is related to the seller * *

4. 2023-10-31
   listed $195,900 Active 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   * * Back on the Market at no Fault of the Seller * * Welcome home to your country oasis not far from all of the conveniences of city living. This 3BR 2bath home features resilient cedar siding, a true wood burning masonry fireplace; on demand gas water heater, durable metal roof and NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS. Beautifully engineered hardwood style flooring in the LR, Owners suite and hall, tiled kitchen, NEW wine/beverage fridge and a spacious backyard for all of your entertainment needs. Brand new carpet in the other 2 bedrooms. If you are going to live just a short ride from the most beautiful golf courses you may as well enjoy your very own putting green right in your backyard. * * Listing agent is related to the seller * *

5. 2023-09-08
   status Pending
6. 2023-09-01
   listed $195,900 Active
7. 2022-10-06
   soldstatus $385,000
8. 2022-04-16
   listed $179,500
9. 2022-03-25
   soldstatus $152,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 54.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $1,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raeford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #3562

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• City population: 44,880
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $245,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-12-20 Sold (MLS) $195,900 LPRMLS
• 2023-11-17 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-10-31 Listed $195,900 LPRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listed $195,900 LPRMLS
• 2022-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-16 Listed $179,500 LPRMLS
• 2022-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.