519 Micklenburg St · Victoria, VA 23974

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 2009 0.96 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Doublewide located in the country on almost 1 acre with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and 1188 square feet of living space. Just minutes from local dining, shopping and entertainment. Needs work. Sold as-is, where is. Call your Realtor to view. Thanks for looking.

Key facts

• 0.96 acre lot
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#235 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lunenburg County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #110 of 131 in VA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 378 students, 99% FRL); Lunenburg Middle (math 23% / reading 63%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 332 students, 98% FRL); Central High (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 495 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 60% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Lunenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29 of equity ($553 loan paydown + $-524 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Lunenburg County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $80k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.74%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $16,286
• Equity at exit: $20,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $49,028
• Equity at exit: $22,839

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23974

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $219/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $354	+0% $331	+5% $308	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $291	+0% $331	+5% $371	+10% $411
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $351	base $331	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2020-10-30
   soldstatus $50,000
2. 2019-06-13
   historical
3. 2019-03-26
   listed $75,000
4. 2016-10-14
   soldstatus $20,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Doublewide located in the country on almost 1 acre with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and 1188 square feet of living space. Just minutes from local dining, shopping and entertainment. Needs work. Sold as-is, where is. Call your Realtor to view. Thanks for looking.

5. 2016-10-14
   soldstatus $20,000

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Doublewide located in the country on almost 1 acre with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and 1188 square feet of living space. Just minutes from local dining, shopping and entertainment. Needs work. Sold as-is, where is. Call your Realtor to view. Thanks for looking.

6. 2016-07-05
   listed $25,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   Doublewide located in the country on almost 1 acre with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and 1188 square feet of living space. Just minutes from local dining, shopping and entertainment. Needs work. Sold as-is, where is. Call your Realtor to view. Thanks for looking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $219 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 200.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$219
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $3,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lunenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102310
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $37,728
• Composite: 38.6/100
• National rank: #4162
• State rank: #110 of 131 in VA

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #7920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,908

Population outlook (Lunenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,367 people
• By 2030: 10,757 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 9,464 · -16.7%
• By 2050: 8,329 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 6,292 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 4,575 · -59.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 39% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lunenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.8) · D 38.3% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -3.5pp · 2024: -22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.8 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+17.6 2012: R+5.0 2008: R+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.65%
• Current HPI: 177.4653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-13 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2019-03-26 Listed $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 SCAR
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 RVLG
• 2016-07-05 Listed $25,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $219 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.