3104 N Van Buren St · Bay City, MI 48708

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1930 5,227 sqft lot Est $94k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Newer furnace
• Water heater

Tags

• MAJOR MECHANICAL UPDATES
• NEWER FURNACE
• WATER HEATER
• VINYL WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas heating (forced air); Public water; Public sanitary sewer
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Built in 1930; Below-grade finished area not listed (basement area noted separately)
• Construction: Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen about 11 x 12 with laminate flooring
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; Primary bedroom about 11 x 10 with carpet; Second bedroom about 10 x 9 with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living room and bedrooms; Laminate in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approximately 6 x 5)
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $95k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,380
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Villaire St	0.31mi	2/1.0	693 (+5%)	6mo	$57,000	$82	72
807 Borton Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	750 (+14%)	19mo	$107,500	$143	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $536
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $20,909
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $277	+0% $250	+5% $223	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $208	+0% $250	+5% $293	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $274	base $250	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $94,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $99,900 Active
17. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $21,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

18. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $21,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

19. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $21,000

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

20. 2017-05-05
    listed $21,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

21. 2017-05-05
    listed $21,000 274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

22. 2017-05-05
    listed $21,000

    Show marketing remark (274 chars)

    this 2 bedroom 1 bath home features detached garage and basement. The Seller must comply with HUD Guidelines 24 CRF 206.125 and property is sold "as is". NO closing cost, repairs or utilities restored. Min 10% EMD certified funds and proof of funds with all offers

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$350/yr (+$29/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$370
• After-tax cash flow: $2,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+375.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $21,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $21,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $21,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-05-05 Listed $21,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-05 Listed $21,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-05-05 Listed $21,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.