Cleburne St · Houston, TX 77004

$850,000

10 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,511 sqft · Land · 135 Days on market

Built 1945 4,950 sqft lot $188/sqft · 19% above area Est $713k · 19% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled home featuring elegant charm and hardwood floors throughout. Move-in ready with timeless appeal and modern updates. Owning a duplex in Third Ward aligns with my personal and entrepreneurial values its a property that supports community, creates housing opportunities, and generates revenue in a way thats both stable and scalable. Its not just about rent checks; iitsabout building sustainable enterprise around real estate that serves people and serves profit. Offer to owner finance with down payment of equity .

Key facts

• 4,950 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 135 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 10-bed/6.0-bath land listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (63.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (69.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (69.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gregory-Lincoln Ed Ctr (math 14% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 600 students, 93% FRL); Lamar H S (math 38% / reading 65%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 3,125 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 89% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $256,756 (69.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.50%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 27.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $713,479
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: 19.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-341,499
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.44×
• Total profit: $-580,345
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77004

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 27.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,492/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-3,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,459

Max offer price $306,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,593	-5% $-2,834	+0% $-3,074	+5% $-3,315	+10% $-3,555
Rent	-10% $-3,277	-5% $-3,176	+0% $-3,074	+5% $-2,973	+10% $-2,871
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,646	-0.5pp $-2,858	base $-3,074	+0.5pp $-3,295	+1.0pp $-3,519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $850,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $850,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $850,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $850,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-02-06
    listed $450,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home featuring elegant charm and hardwood floors throughout. Move-in ready with timeless appeal and modern updates. Owning a duplex in Third Ward aligns with my personal and entrepreneurial values its a property that supports community, creates housing opportunities, and generates revenue in a way thats both stable and scalable. Its not just about rent checks; iitsabout building sustainable enterprise around real estate that serves people and serves profit. Offer to owner finance with down payment of equity .

14. 2010-12-31
    historical
15. 2009-12-11
    listed $157,500
16. 2007-05-24
    historical
17. 2006-11-28
    listed $180,000
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,492 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,555 · $1,296/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,063/yr (+$1,005/mo · 345.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$3,492
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$54,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,997
• Household income: $71,199
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.34%
• Current HPI: 199.6066
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $450,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2010-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-11 Listed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2007-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-11-28 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,492 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.