202 Avenue J S · Chillicothe, TX 79225

$95,500

3 bd · None ba · 2,228 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 1945 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Home is located in Chillocothe tx 79225 A lot of updates including: New AC unit and new furnace. New plubming Updated Electrical. New windows and back sliding door. New roof New kitchen countertops and dishwasher New flooring in bathrooms

Key facts

• New ac unit
• New furnace
• Updated electrical

Tags

• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW BACK SLIDING DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath other listed at $96k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#334 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chillicothe ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #712 of 1,141 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chillicothe School (math 32% / reading 37%, 202 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 61% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($660 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hardeman County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,067 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $32,281
• Equity at exit: $42,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $85,867
• Equity at exit: $66,177

Cash invested: $26,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79225

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $95,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $359	+0% $326	+5% $293	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $277	+0% $326	+5% $375	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $350	base $326	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,875
• Closing costs: $2,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,500 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,500 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,500 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,500 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,500 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,500 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,500 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,500 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,500 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $95,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,349
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$2,778
• Taxable income: $2,542
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $3,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home has undergone significant updates, including a new roof, siding, and interior finishes, but some minor repairs and maintenance are needed. Landscaping and interior painting would further enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Windows — No visible damage
• Minor Electrical — No visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Windows · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Electrical · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chillicothe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813890
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,390
• Composite: 36.69/100
• National rank: #9223
• State rank: #712 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Chillicothe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #334
• US rank: #7320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chillicothe, TX
• City population: 922
• Population (ZIP): 922

Population outlook (Hardeman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,541 people
• By 2030: 3,375 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 3,066 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 2,784 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 2,057 · -41.9%
• By 2100: 1,406 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardeman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.7) · D 13.4% · R 86.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -51.8pp · 2024: -72.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.7 2020: R+68.9 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+51.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $95,500 FSBO.com