9505 Dahlia Blvd · Mesquite, TX 75126

$251,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 $149/sqft · 33% below area Est $377k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Jenna modern: open 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Floor Plan, Storage-Focused Kitchen Design, Convenient 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Modern Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,689 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantr

Key facts

• Walk in pantry
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STORAGE FOCUSED KITCHEN DESIGN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• OWNER'S ENTRY FROM REAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $251,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family spec home
• Exterior features: Property located at 9505 Dahlia Blvd, Forney, TX 75126

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Jenna - Modern plan; Living area approximately 1689

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,069 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,686
• List price: $251,990
• Delta: -33.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9501 Stonefruit	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-5%)	12mo	$345,061	$215	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,553
• Equity at exit: $37,573

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,374
• Equity at exit: $21,787

Cash invested: $70,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,321
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,780/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $251,990

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,998
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	15d	1	1.38mi
4032 Eagle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	4d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,990 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,990 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,990 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,990 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $251,990 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $253,990 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $253,990 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $253,990 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,990 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    listed $251,990 Active 897-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,115
• − Property taxes: −$3,780
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$3,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$791
• After-tax cash flow: $1,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B