18527 Trail Bend Ln · Houston, TX 77084

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1982 4,229 sqft lot $138/sqft · 36% below area Est $233k · 36% under $43/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL PATIO HOME IN EXCELLENT AREA. GOLF COURSE VERY CLOSE BY, SHOPPING NEAR, EASY TO GET TO I-10, LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, AREA POOL AND PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY. THIS IS A SHORT SALE LENDER WILL APPROVE OFFERS.

Key facts

• 4,229 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Wood Fern CAI / Inframark); Annual association fee of $520 (includes clubhouse and common areas); Association amenities: clubhouse, park, pool; Community features: community pool, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 15); Additional bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($831/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mayde Creek H S (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,940 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 27% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,013
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -35.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18542 Trail Bend Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	1mo	$210,000	$182	87
18558 Trail Bend Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+6%)	5mo	$205,000	$178	77
18514 Trail Bend Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	16mo	$238,000	$207	75
18558 Denise Dl	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,217 (+12%)	11mo	$204,900	$168	66
18703 Clover Glen Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,158 (+6%)	10mo	$215,000	$186	64
18730 Shannon Glen Ln	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-2%)	18mo	$225,000	$209	61
18715 Denise Dale Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,175 (+8%)	14mo	$240,000	$204	60
18546 Glen Briar Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,234 (+13%)	20mo	$249,900	$203	58
18806 Denise Dale Ln	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,193 (+9%)	17mo	$195,000	$163	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,394
• Equity at exit: $33,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,030
• Equity at exit: $32,686

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 494
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,723/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,627

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18747 Denise Dale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	5d	1	0.29mi
3740 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,070	$2.22	1d	250	0.34mi
3450 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	826	$1,434	$1.74	1d	17	0.73mi
3450 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,500	$2.02	5d	204	0.73mi
4211 Falcon Meadow Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,795	$1.25	24d	1	1.01mi
19138 Morton Rd Unit TOBC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	2d	1	1.10mi
3199 Eagle Ridge Way Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	826	$1,051	$1.27	24d	1	1.11mi
4607 Cypress Colony Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,950	$1.44	43d	1	1.13mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,157	$1.51	2d	1	1.26mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,200	$1.54	11d	1	1.26mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,937	$1.55	2d	1	1.26mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2959 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,110	$1.48	43d	1	1.29mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,189	$1.54	10d	1	1.29mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,969	$1.58	10d	1	1.29mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Unit 2963 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,820	$1.46	43d	1	1.29mi
2937 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,456	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
19087 Windy Stone Dr Unit EKH2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	827	$1,472	$1.78	11d	1	1.34mi
19087 Windy Stone Dr Unit EKH1 Katy, TX	1.0	1.0	726	$1,282	$1.77	11d	1	1.34mi
2931 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,383	$1.30	1d	20	1.35mi
2926 Barker Cypress Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1091	$1,745	$1.60	12d	1	1.37mi
4711 Meadowbloom Ln Unit A2 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $150,000 Active 743-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   historical $150,000 743-char remark
3. 2026-04-20
   historical
4. 2025-04-23
   price $175,000
5. 2025-03-10
   price $190,000
6. 2025-03-01
   listed $210,000 Active
7. 2011-03-08
   soldstatus
8. 2011-03-04
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL PATIO HOME IN EXCELLENT AREA. GOLF COURSE VERY CLOSE BY, SHOPPING NEAR, EASY TO GET TO I-10, LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, AREA POOL AND PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY. THIS IS A SHORT SALE LENDER WILL APPROVE OFFERS.

9. 2011-01-25
   historical

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL PATIO HOME IN EXCELLENT AREA. GOLF COURSE VERY CLOSE BY, SHOPPING NEAR, EASY TO GET TO I-10, LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, AREA POOL AND PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY. THIS IS A SHORT SALE LENDER WILL APPROVE OFFERS.

10. 2010-12-16
    listed $49,900

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL PATIO HOME IN EXCELLENT AREA. GOLF COURSE VERY CLOSE BY, SHOPPING NEAR, EASY TO GET TO I-10, LOTS OF NATURAL LIGHT, AREA POOL AND PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY. THIS IS A SHORT SALE LENDER WILL APPROVE OFFERS.

11. 2008-10-27
    soldstatus
12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,723 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,723 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,723
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$352
• After-tax cash flow: $1,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+200.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2011-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-01-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-16 Listed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2008-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,723 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.