321 Chestnut · Mount Holly Springs, PA 17065

$104,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1948 8,712 sqft lot Est $199k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

✨ Affordable Opportunity in Mount Holly Springs! ✨ Discover the potential in this 1,152 sq. ft. two-bedroom, one-bath home located in the heart of Mount Holly Springs. Whether you're an investor, a contractor, or a buyer looking for a project, this property offers a solid foundation and plenty of room to reimagine it into something special. The home sits on a fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, gardening, or outdoor hobbies, and includes multiple storage sheds for tools, equipment, or workshop space. With some repairs and updates, this property could truly shine. Enjoy small-town living with local conveniences just minutes away. Bring your vision and make this home your next successful pr

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,143 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle Area Hs (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 1,578 students, 39% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carlisle Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $722 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.66%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,410
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Chestnut St	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,184 (+1%)	1mo	$198,000	$167	90
419 Chestnut	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,104 (-6%)	6mo	$185,000	$168	81
644 Highland Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+2%)	1mo	$256,000	$213	64
28 E Pine St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,175 (+0%)	20mo	$200,000	$170	62
600 W Pine St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-6%)	12mo	$240,000	$217	46
14 Larken Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+4%)	24mo	$75,000	$62	37
604 Sandbank Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (+9%)	13mo	$290,000	$227	36
8 Franklin St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+10%)	21mo	$84,500	$65	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $15,252
• Equity at exit: $15,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $54,989
• Equity at exit: $9,035

Cash invested: $29,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17065

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$548
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $104,500

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,125
• Closing costs: $3,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Mill St Mount Holly Springs, PA	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   listed $104,500 Active
3. 2026-02-12
   historical $104,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,854
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − Depreciation: −$3,040
• Taxable income: $4,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $4,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Holly Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1143
• US rank: #13131

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Holly Springs, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,043

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, India, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.81%
• Current HPI: 262.0582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $104,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon $104,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,924 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.