125 Keystone St · Appalachia, VA 24216

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

4,356 sqft lot Est $58k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

All it needs is a little TLC!!! Move in ready! Great investor special priced below tax assessment and absolutely ready for its next renter! Inside Pictures Coming soon!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residential house; Not in a subdivision; Zoned R
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Level topography

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Seven total rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $29,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$58,352) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#505 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Union Primary (math 72% / reading 79%, grade A, #207 of 1,108 statewide, top 19%, 861 students, 84% FRL); Union Middle (math 58% / reading 70%, grade B+, #127 of 342 statewide, top 37%, 583 students, 89% FRL); Union High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 601 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $30k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.85%
• DSCR: 5.00
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,352
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Spruce St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (+2%)	11mo	$60,000	$56	73
210 Callahan Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	9mo	$45,000	$41	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $8,178
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $24,620
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24216

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $166/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $772

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $209	+0% $200	+5% $192	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $160	+0% $200	+5% $241	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $208	base $200	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $29,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $29,900 Active
18. 1997-09-16
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $166 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $245 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$166
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $2,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$565
• After-tax cash flow: $1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Appalachia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #22417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Appalachia, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,356

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.82%
• Current HPI: 112.8878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+86.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $29,900 TVRMLS
• 1997-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.