Briarwood Plan · Johnston, IA 50131

$316,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,006 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

$12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Destiny Homes presents its spacious Briarwood II plan. The Briarwood II plan features 4 bedrooms, 2 car garage, 2.5 baths and over 2,000 sq. ft of living space. This 2-story home has everything; including ample entertaining space within the open concept kitchen/great room/dining + bonus room, quartz countertops, kitchen island, walk in pantry and mudroom. The primary ensuite with walk in closet, plus 3 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry room are located on the upper level. Unfinished lower level has plenty of options for future finish and storage. All Launch series homes are Energy Star rated & have a 2 year builder warranty. Striking the perfect balance between quality and efficiency, your path to homeownership starts right now! Ask about $2,000 in closing costs provided by preferred lender.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $316,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $483,385.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in IA, #1,344 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston Community School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 289 in IA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Horizon Elementary (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A-, #263 of 616 statewide, top 43%, 647 students, 36% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A+, #44 of 246 statewide, top 19%, 1,112 students, 27% FRL); Johnston Senior High School (math 76% / reading 79%, grade A-, #56 of 336 statewide, top 17%, 1,790 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,135 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.03%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 18.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,385
• List price: $316,000
• Delta: -34.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10123 NW 68th Ave	0.18mi	4/4.0	2,146 (+7%)	2mo	$539,900	$252	76
6739 Bright St	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,915 (-4%)	9mo	$745,000	$389	74
10022 NW 68th Ave	0.19mi	4/4.0	2,146 (+7%)	6mo	$569,900	$266	72
6728 NW 106th St	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,053 (+2%)	2mo	$374,340	$182	72
6713 NW 99th St	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,988 (-1%)	8mo	$537,500	$270	71
10114 NW 68th Ave	0.20mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,146 (+7%)	12mo	$560,884	$261	62
10211 NW 68th Ave	0.19mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,146 (+7%)	12mo	$502,300	$234	58
6725 NW 93rd St	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,108 (+5%)	6mo	$590,000	$280	52
6419 NW 97th St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,129 (+6%)	4mo	$431,300	$203	47
10695 NW 72nd Ln	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,810 (-10%)	11mo	$615,000	$340	40
10100 Catalina Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,742 (-13%)	7mo	$337,000	$193	32
9905 Mcwilliams Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,758 (-12%)	10mo	$345,000	$196	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-182,439
• Equity at exit: $72,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -90.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.23×
• Total profit: $-301,955
• Equity at exit: $41,794

Cash invested: $135,348 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50131

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,535
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$604 /mo · $7,251/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-1,582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,244

Max offer price $254,482

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,248	-5% $-1,415	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,749	+10% $-1,916
Rent	-10% $-1,759	-5% $-1,670	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,493	+10% $-1,405
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,338	-0.5pp $-1,459	base $-1,582	+0.5pp $-1,707	+1.0pp $-1,835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,846
• Closing costs: $14,502
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6954 Marigold Ct Johnston, IA	4.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	25d	1	0.15mi
6957 Poppy Ct Johnston, IA	4.0	2.5	1709	$1,995	$1.17	16d	1	0.17mi
10340 Powell Ave Johnston, IA	5.0	3.0	2620	$3,200	$1.22	16d	1	0.17mi
6923 Bluebell Ct Johnston, IA	3.0	2.5	1565	$1,925	$1.23	16d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $316,000 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,000 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,000 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,000 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,000 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $316,000 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,000 Active 947 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $316,000 Active 945 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,000 Active 944 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $316,000 Active 943 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $316,000 Active 942 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $316,000 Active 939 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,000 Active 938 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,000 Active 937 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,000 Active 936 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,000 Active 935 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,000 Active 934 DOM
18. 2023-11-08
    listed $316,000 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Destiny Homes presents its spacious Briarwood II plan. The Briarwood II plan features 4 bedrooms, 2 car garage, 2.5 baths and over 2,000 sq. ft of living space. This 2-story home has everything; including ample entertaining space within the open concept kitchen/great room/dining + bonus room, quartz countertops, kitchen island, walk in pantry and mudroom. The primary ensuite with walk in closet, plus 3 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry room are located on the upper level. Unfinished lower level has plenty of options for future finish and storage. All Launch series homes are Energy Star rated & have a 2 year builder warranty. Striking the perfect balance between quality and efficiency, your path to homeownership starts right now! Ask about $2,000 in closing costs provided by preferred lender.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,077
• − Property taxes: −$7,251
• − Insurance: −$2,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$14,062
• Taxable loss: −$28,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,806
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915450
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $85,758
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #309
• State rank: #24 of 289 in IA

Livability — Johnston

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnston, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 24,583
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 24,583
• Household income: $106,551
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 685.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 548,042 people
• By 2030: 588,557 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 670,629 · +22.4%
• By 2050: 752,830 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 955,069 · +74.3%
• By 2100: 1,115,436 · +103.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% American 3% Swiss 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 54.8% · R 43.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+11.5 2012: D+14.2 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.38%
• Current HPI: 203.3508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $316,000 Zillow