4403 Twin Lakes Dr · Melbourne, FL 32934

$158,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 9,148 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE LAKEFRONT HOME IN DESIRABLE 55+ COMMUNITY WITH POOL; CLOSE TO EVERYTHING BUT IN A SERENE SETTING! LOVELY NEW VINYL, NEWER ROOF, A/C. ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM WITH GREAT VIEW OF THE LAKE. LARGE MASTER(18X12) WITH DOUBLE SINKS. INCLUDES HURRICANE SHUTTERS, REFRIGERATOR W/ ICE & WATER, AND RELAXING PORCH TO ENJOY THOSE WARM GENTLE BREEZES.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Lake views
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Twin Lakes; Community clubhouse; Monthly association fee of $115; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Few trees; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface; Lakefront waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sabal Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 503 students, 69% FRL); Lyndon B. Johnson Middle School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 610 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $159k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,373
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $29,678
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32934

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $757/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $158,995

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,749
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1703 Blanche Ave Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	23d	1	0.31mi
3600 Aurora Rd Unit A Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	755	$1,850	$2.45	23d	1	0.90mi
1758 Caleb Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	14d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $158,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$563/yr (+$47/mo · 74.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$757
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,515
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$364
• After-tax cash flow: $3,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Melbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 178,420
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,564
• Household income: $104,369
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 233.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.68%
• Current HPI: 315.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+174.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $158,995 SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $66,900 Public Records
• 2012-08-08 Sold (MLS) $66,900 SCMLS
• 2011-11-02 Listed $66,900 SCMLS
• 2009-09-28 Listed $59,900 SCMLS
• 2009-02-27 Listed $74,900 SCMLS
• 2008-09-22 Listed $75,000 SCMLS
• 2008-07-23 Listed $79,900 SCMLS
• 2006-09-18 Listed $99,900 SCMLS
• 2005-05-03 Listed $119,900 SCMLS
• 2003-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1998-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $757 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.