4550 Chestergate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1980 6,050 sqft lot $129/sqft · 8% below area Est $201k · 8% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this freshly refreshed home on a quiet street in Birnamwood. 3 bedrooms and 2 bath home with new paint and new laminate floors throughout. Home is ready for move in with mature trees and plenty of shade with a quiet backyard.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Quiet backyard
• Mature trees

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• MATURE TREES
• QUIET BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure provided
• HOA & community: Part of Birnam Wood III association; Annual association fee of $385; Association fee includes recreation facilities; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Entry on main level
• Construction: Built in 1980; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Tub with shower; One fireplace; Total of 3 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,126 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.33%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,827
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -7.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 Algernon Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-5%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	67
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+3%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	63
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	7mo	$205,000	$160	57
3902 Adonis Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+2%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	56
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	56
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-12%)	16mo	$224,900	$179	53
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+7%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	49
4214 Chestergate Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+14%)	13mo	$199,990	$122	47
23207 Naples Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+9%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	45
4227 Mossygate Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+12%)	10mo	$150,000	$93	44
23303 Whittaker Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-6%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	43
23130 Royal Tiger Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+7%)	21mo	$249,000	$162	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,755
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,326
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,931/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $412	+0% $360	+5% $307	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $267	+0% $360	+5% $452	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $407	base $360	+0.5pp $312	+1.0pp $263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $184,900 Pending 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $184,900 Pending 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $184,900 Pending 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,900 Pending 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,900 Pending 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   listed $184,900 Active 234-char remark
8. 2024-10-07
   historical $1,575
9. 2024-10-06
   historical
10. 2024-10-02
    price $1,575
11. 2024-09-30
    price $189,900
12. 2024-09-09
    listed $1,645
13. 2024-09-03
    listed $199,900 Active
14. 2018-07-09
    soldstatus
15. 2015-07-11
    historical
16. 2015-05-29
    status Active
17. 2015-05-14
    status Pending
18. 2015-04-10
    listed $85,900 Active
19. 2003-10-22
    soldstatus
20. 1994-12-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$4,931
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $1,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Rental Removed $1,575 HARMLS
• 2024-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $1,575 HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listed for Rent $1,645 HARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2018-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-05-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-10 Listed $85,900 HARMLS
• 2003-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,931 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.