221 W Herndon Ave #181 · Fresno, CA 93650

$128,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $89/sqft · 12% above area Est $115k · 12% over $747/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

No Property tax grandfather in on license fee approximate $80.00 per year. saves you about $1.300.00 every year. New Quartz counters in kitchen and both baths, New 6 burner stainless steel drop in stove, new stainless steel side by side refrigerator ice and water in door, new stainless steel upgraded dishwasher, new stainless under mount sink, New drapes and rods. New 14mm laminate flooring through out. New paint inside and outside, roof resealed in February 2026, bathroom tubs and showers redone in February 2026. Fenced yard low maintenance with trees and drive way is cement. Great floor plan separate family room with wet bar and place for full size washer and dryer. Gated senior park 55+.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1974
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (13.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($888 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,694 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,113
• List price: $128,500
• Delta: 11.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #9	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$53,000	$37	98
221 W Herndon Ave #8	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$66	95
221 W Herndon #37	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	93
221 W Herndon Ave #118	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$139,500	$97	93
221 W Herndon Ave #71	0.00mi	2/1.8	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$143,000	$99	92
221 W Herndon Ave #87	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$119,000	$83	92
221 W Herndon #66	0.01mi	2/1.8	1,488 (+3%)	8mo	$139,900	$94	87
221 W Herndon Ave #130	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,275 (-12%)	2mo	$119,500	$94	75
221 W Herndon Ave #41	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$100,000	$74	74
221 W Herndon Ave #184	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$69,900	$52	73
221 W Herndon Ave #192	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$112,000	$90	72
105 Herndon #60	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	0mo	$120,000	$93	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $63,076
• Equity at exit: $115,763

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $192,534
• Equity at exit: $249,647

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$747
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,070

Max offer price $111,694

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.51mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	1d	2	0.81mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.89mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.91mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	43d	1	0.91mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.96mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	0.96mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	1d	10	1.04mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	2	1.10mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	10d	1	1.10mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	23d	1	1.11mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	1.12mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	43d	1	1.14mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.14mi
7166 N Fruit Ave #179 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	884	$1,625	$1.84	1d	1	1.19mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	3d	1	1.27mi
5544 N Poplar Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	3.0	1868	$2,485	$1.33	43d	1	1.28mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$1,974	$1.83	1d	21	1.29mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	1d	10	1.29mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	43d	1	1.31mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	3d	8	1.33mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	43d	1	1.39mi
5721 N Callisch Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1393	$1,950	$1.40	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $747 · $8,964/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,500 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,500 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,500 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $128,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,500 Pending Accepting Backups 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,500 Pending Accepting Backups 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,500 Pending Accepting Backups 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,500 Pending Accepting Backups 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,500 Pending Accepting Backups 55 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $128,500 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    No Property tax grandfather in on license fee approximate $80.00 per year. saves you about $1.300.00 every year. New Quartz counters in kitchen and both baths, New 6 burner stainless steel drop in stove, new stainless steel side by side refrigerator ice and water in door, new stainless steel upgraded dishwasher, new stainless under mount sink, New drapes and rods. New 14mm laminate flooring through out. New paint inside and outside, roof resealed in February 2026, bathroom tubs and showers redone in February 2026. Fenced yard low maintenance with trees and drive way is cement. Great floor plan separate family room with wet bar and place for full size washer and dryer. Gated senior park 55+.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$8,964
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable loss: −$3,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $-652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including new appliances, flooring, and paint. It is move-in ready with a low-maintenance yard and a good floor plan.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and low maintenance
• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and durability
• Both New paint — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and low maintenance ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both New paint — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $128,500 FRESNOMLS