38 5th Ave · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1900 3,240 sqft lot Est $170k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Attention investors! North Tonawanda double with rents totaling $1525/mo, tenants pay their own utilities. EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY.

Key facts

• 3,240 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$169,600) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,820/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $99k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.98%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,600
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 2nd Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,624 (-4%)	3mo	$165,000	$102	83
35 5th Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,442 (-15%)	8mo	$100,777	$70	67
48 7th Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,444 (-15%)	5mo	$125,000	$87	66
803 Oliver St	0.31mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-6%)	15mo	$159,900	$100	58
2 2nd Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+12%)	19mo	$37,000	$20	56
306 Shartle Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-4%)	18mo	$167,000	$103	54
32 Oakwood Ter	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-6%)	7mo	$180,000	$113	48
279 Wheatfield St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,888 (+11%)	23mo	$193,000	$102	41
120 Center Ave	0.16mi	4/6.5	1,486 (-12%)	19mo	$87,000	$59	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $91,187
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $244,164
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,442/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $1,547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $862

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 40%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,820
Total (2 units)			$2,820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	1d	12	0.26mi
757 Remington Dr Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 2017-05-30
   status Active
4. 2017-05-24
   historical
5. 2017-05-24
   historical
6. 2017-02-23
   price $50,000
7. 2016-09-21
   price $54,900
8. 2016-08-31
   listed $60,000 Active
9. 2009-12-31
   soldstatus $51,700
10. 2009-12-31
    soldstatus $51,700
11. 2009-03-06
    soldstatus $36,050
12. 2009-03-06
    soldstatus $36,050
13. 2006-01-09
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,442 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,442
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,707
• − Management: −$2,707
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $18,063
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,335
• After-tax cash flow: $14,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+395.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-05-30 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-02-23 Price Changed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-09-21 Price Changed $54,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $51,700 Public Records
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $51,700 Public Records
• 2009-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $36,050 Public Records
• 2009-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $36,050 Public Records
• 2006-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,442 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.