12121 N Whitetail Rd · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1980 1.03 ac lot $650/sqft · 301% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors take a look. SH zoning allows for more than one home. There were 2 homes originally, but only the single wide 2 bdrm 1 bath MH with an addition and the small guest house exists. There were 2 elec meters, 1 is turned on. Seller selling As Is and will do no repairs. This is a great lot as a remodel or start from scratch by adding your own home. NO HOA so bring your toys and imagination!

Key facts

• Great lot
• Sh zoning
• Small guest house

Tags

• SH ZONING
• SMALL GUEST HOUSE
• GREAT LOT
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.9% in Avra Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $130k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,900
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -50.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,992
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $42,164
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16075 W El Tiro Rd Marana, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	1d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $129,900 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Investors take a look. SH zoning allows for more than one home. There were 2 homes originally, but only the single wide 2 bdrm 1 bath MH with an addition and the small guest house exists. There were 2 elec meters, 1 is turned on. Seller selling As Is and will do no repairs. This is a great lot as a remodel or start from scratch by adding your own home. NO HOA so bring your toys and imagination!

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $149,900 Active 398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (398 chars)

    Investors take a look. SH zoning allows for more than one home. There were 2 homes originally, but only the single wide 2 bdrm 1 bath MH with an addition and the small guest house exists. There were 2 elec meters, 1 is turned on. Seller selling As Is and will do no repairs. This is a great lot as a remodel or start from scratch by adding your own home. NO HOA so bring your toys and imagination!

18. 2025-12-18
    soldstatus $85,500
19. 2020-12-27
    historical
20. 2020-12-01
    price $69,900
21. 2020-09-29
    listed $79,900 Active
22. 2002-02-01
    historical
23. 2001-01-29
    listed $49,900
24. 1999-12-31
    historical
25. 1999-05-11
    listed $49,900
26. 1998-12-02
    historical
27. 1998-06-04
    listed $49,888
28. 1997-05-20
    soldstatus $42,500
29. 1997-05-19
    soldstatus $42,500
30. 1997-02-14
    listed $48,000
31. 1979-11-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $4,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1199.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $129,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Listed $149,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-01 Price Changed $69,900 MLSSAZ
• 2020-09-29 Listed $79,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-02-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2001-01-29 Listed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 1999-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1999-05-11 Listed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 1998-12-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1998-06-04 Listed $49,888 MLSSAZ
• 1997-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1997-05-19 Sold (MLS) $42,500 MLSSAZ
• 1997-02-14 Listed $48,000 MLSSAZ
• 1979-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.