557 3rd St · Rosiclare, IL 62982

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Other · 181 Days on market

Built 1970 7,200 sqft lot $51/sqft · at area comps Est $40k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home with 2 Bedrooms, Bath, Att Garage, walking distance to city Park, River & Boat Ramp and Down Town.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#320 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County CUSD 1 (rural): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #564 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.56%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,000
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -0.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $28,292
• Equity at exit: $17,941

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $67,883
• Equity at exit: $27,649

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62982

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $866/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $377

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $380	+0% $368	+5% $357	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $335	+0% $368	+5% $402	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $378	base $368	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,900 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-03-12
    price $39,900
15. 2026-01-06
    historical
16. 2025-09-16
    listed Active
17. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus $35,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Well maintained home with 2 Bedrooms, Bath, Att Garage, walking distance to city Park, River & Boat Ramp and Down Town.

18. 2022-10-04
    listed $45,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Well maintained home with 2 Bedrooms, Bath, Att Garage, walking distance to city Park, River & Boat Ramp and Down Town.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $866 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$866
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$810
• − Management: −$810
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $4,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$970
• After-tax cash flow: $3,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1718200
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,617
• Composite: 10.06/100
• National rank: #9807
• State rank: #564 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rosiclare

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #6346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosiclare, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,017

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,760 people
• By 2030: 3,548 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 3,134 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 2,786 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 2,118 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 1,578 · -58.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.6% · R 80.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.3pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+57.7 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $39,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Listed $45,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $866 · +84.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.