15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #146 · Garnet, CA 92240

$102,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1984 $77/sqft · 89% above area $853/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this stunning 2 bed/2 bath recently remodeled home located at Hidden Springs Country Club, a 55+ active community in Desert Hot Springs. Soak in awe inspiring views of the golf course and surrounding hills from your covered deck or patio area. The spacious living area is ideal for relaxing in comfort or entertaining friends and family. There is a separate dining area and wait until you see the large remodeled kitchen. Modern appliances, large double sink, expansive quartz counters, and SO much cabinet storage, make meal prep a breeze. The bedrooms are large, with the primary bedroom boasting an ensuite bath with oversized shower stall and tasteful elevated sink. You will find pristine laminate flooring throughout the home and a separate laundry area with washer/dryer and updated cabinetry. There is a covered porch area off the main entry and with patio access that might make a great art studio, workshop, reading nook; the opportunities are endless, you decide. Community amenities include tennis and pickleball courts, a sauna, a large swimming pool, two hot tubs, clubhouse complete with gym, pool table, and meeting area, and a dog park for your furry family members. Come and enjoy desert living at it's finest!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Golf course views
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• COVERED DECK
• LARGE REMODELED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE GRANITE COUNTERS
• PRISTINE LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $103k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.8% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bubbling Wells Elementary (665 students, 97% FRL); Desert Springs Middle (803 students, 99% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,631/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $711 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,726 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.59%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,579
• List price: $102,900
• Delta: 88.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #243	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$69,500	$52	87
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #283	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$75,000	$56	87
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #191	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	17mo	$126,000	$94	86
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #265	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$45,000	$31	86
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #267	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	18mo	$80,000	$60	85
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #300	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$55,000	$38	82
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #237	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$40,000	$28	77
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #108	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	17mo	$95,000	$73	74
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #104	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$125,000	$87	69
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #277	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	2mo	$55,000	$36	69
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #167	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$129,500	$90	66
16160 Avenida Mirola	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$318,000	$237	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $17,007
• Equity at exit: $15,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $64,833
• Equity at exit: $8,897

Cash invested: $28,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 521
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$853
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $102,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $521	+0% $492	+5% $463	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $388	+0% $492	+5% $596	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $518	base $492	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,725
• Closing costs: $3,087
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	26d	1	0.19mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	45d	1	0.19mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$5,000	$2.70	45d	1	0.27mi
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	45d	1	0.99mi
13440 Quinta Way Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,000	$1.94	45d	1	1.16mi
68160 Calle Blanco Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	45d	1	1.26mi
13235 Mountain View Rd Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	45d	1	1.28mi
13553 Avenida La Vis Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,495	$1.54	45d	1	1.28mi
12920 Inaja St Unit C Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $853 · $10,236/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $102,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $102,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $102,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $102,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $102,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $102,900 Active 1239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1239 chars)

    Don't miss this stunning 2 bed/2 bath recently remodeled home located at Hidden Springs Country Club, a 55+ active community in Desert Hot Springs. Soak in awe inspiring views of the golf course and surrounding hills from your covered deck or patio area. The spacious living area is ideal for relaxing in comfort or entertaining friends and family. There is a separate dining area and wait until you see the large remodeled kitchen. Modern appliances, large double sink, expansive quartz counters, and SO much cabinet storage, make meal prep a breeze. The bedrooms are large, with the primary bedroom boasting an ensuite bath with oversized shower stall and tasteful elevated sink. You will find pristine laminate flooring throughout the home and a separate laundry area with washer/dryer and updated cabinetry. There is a covered porch area off the main entry and with patio access that might make a great art studio, workshop, reading nook; the opportunities are endless, you decide. Community amenities include tennis and pickleball courts, a sauna, a large swimming pool, two hot tubs, clubhouse complete with gym, pool table, and meeting area, and a dog park for your furry family members. Come and enjoy desert living at it's finest!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 125.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥111°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,764
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$1,982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − HOA: −$10,236
• − Depreciation: −$2,993
• Taxable income: $5,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $4,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $102,900 TheMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $347 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.